Metals Report Interview on Tungsten-Ⅲ

TMR: In their yearly commodity summary for tungsten, the U.S.G.S. states that there are many tungsten mines throughout the world that are in various stages of coming on-line. Many of them are restarts of old mines. Will new mine supply make it to production given the difficulty of financing mining projects?

MS: You hit the nail on the head with financing. Securing funding is the biggest hurdle between projects and production at the moment. We’ve had many financial events over the past few years that have hurt confidence for lending. It’s not unique to the tungsten market—it’s pretty much universal. Tight lending is a macro condition that is working its way all the way down the food chain.

If you look at the fundamental situation, the tungsten market is going to need new production from somewhere. The Chinese aren’t pumping out extra tungsten. In fact, if anything they’re exporting less and less tungsten, particularly the intermediate and unrefined products. Demand in 2012 was level or down because of the problems in Europe. This year, I would expect demand to pick up a little bit.

The current producers of tungsten don’t have the capacity to materially increase production. The biggest mine outside of China, the Cantung mine in Canada, which is owned by North American Tungsten Corp. Ltd. (NTC:TSX), is producing at close to capacity and has only two or three years of reserves—and that’s a generous estimate. Most of the other mines, including a couple of mines in Europe, are producing close to capacity, so they don’t have much leeway. If demand starts to pick up, new projects or restarts will be needed to fill the gap.

In the last couple of years, the only major project that’s started production is the Nui Phao project in Vietnam, owned by Masan Group (private). It’s a Vietnamese company. That project has been through a number of hands and has been in development for quite a long time. At least $500 million ($500M) has been spent on the project. It is somewhat unique in that it is a polymetallic deposit. The process flow sheet is fairly complicated and getting the entire plant up and running will take some time. Other new producers include a smaller-scale operation in Australia and Almonty Industries Inc.’s (AII:TSX.V) Los Santos mine in Spain. These are not particularly large projects, with annual production at less than 1,000 tons of tungsten each.

The largest projects in the tungsten market are up to $500M in size. That is small compared to world-class gold or copper projects. But it is large for this market, and far larger than many of the smaller mining companies can pull off. In that sense, the tungsten market falls between large-scale and small-scale mining. And there might be an opportunity in that space. You could say that the tungsten market “falls between two stools.”

In the context of an approximately 80,000-ton annual market with 3% growth, you need 2,400 tons of additional tungsten metal per year in supply, and with 5% growth you need 4,000 tons. That’s one new big tungsten project per year. It is difficult to see where that supply could come from. In the current market, miners can’t get the financing needed to take projects from a bankable feasibility study to construction. It’s a big problem.

The only other apparently fully funded project that I know of is the Hemerdon project in the U.K., which is owned by Wolf Minerals (WLF:ASX). That project is beginning construction now, but won’t be in production until late 2014 at the earliest. There aren’t any other significant projects that will come on-line in less than two years. Most of the larger projects have at least a two-year construction phase, but most of those projects aren’t fully funded yet. The fundamentals in the tungsten market are good. Price projections for tungsten are good. The problem is getting the funding. Add it all together and it appears that the tungsten market is storing up trouble. For many reasons, the tungsten market isn’t well understood by the investment community. The problem is that whoever’s looking to fund a project is waiting for tungsten prices to go crazy and then they’ll get involved. If an investor waits until then, the timing is just not right.


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