Washington right now is supposed to be all about slashing budgets and tightening belts — but the Department of Defense has recently asked Congress for over a billion dollars. To buy rocks.

Specifically, to buy rare earths and other minerals that are crucial to the U.S. defense industry, and whose supply is currently at the mercy of China and its opaque political system. Japan, for example, was starved of rare earth elements during a maritime dispute with China in 2010. The United States wants to hedge that risk, given the damaging consequences an abrupt clampdown could entail.

The DoD has in previous years noted China’s near-monopoly on global rare earth metal production, but the present report, delivered to the House Armed Services Committee in late March, describes the risks in stark terms, and sketches out a range of scenarios.
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One scenario has China embargoing exports of some key rare earth elements, and notes that currently the U.S. would be hamstrung.

Stockpiling some of the crucial elements is one of the proposed remedies for China’s control. It’s an idea that has hardly been heard since the later years of the Cold War, given the growth of globalized and largely unfettered trade that has characterized the last several decades.

Daniel McGroarty, principal of American Resources, a policy group, and president of U.S. Rare Earths, a mining company, referred to a reflection made by Adam Smith, the ideological father of free markets, over two hundred years ago: that when it comes to strategic items like sailcloth and gunpowder, “it might not always be prudent to depend upon our neighbors for the supply.”

Rare earth metals are to the the modern world what gunpowder and sailcloth were to 18th century Britain, McGroarty says, which explains the DoD’s concern.

                  

“I think we lost sight of the geopolitical or strategic element that might cause countries to intervene in industry for reasons of advantage that are not just economic,” McGroarty said in a telephone interview. “I think we just didn’t see that. And now when we do see it, the situation has changed drastically.”

Two decades ago, McGroarty said, the rare earth market was split between the United States and China. “Now it’s become extraordinarily lopsided,” with China producing over 90 percent of supplies of rare earths.

The Department presents its report on Strategic and Critical Materials Report on Stockpile Requirements every other year. In the past it has noted China’s predominance in the rare earth metal space, but had not previously evinced the concerns seen now.

In a strategic risk assessment given in Appendix 12, the possibility of China cutting off rare earth exports was assigned a mean probability of only 4 percent, though with dire consequences. “Gross domestic product losses would be high, and the consequences would extend over a significant timeframe,” the report said.

It continued: “Economic consequences of war with China are high based on the mutual dependence between the two countries. Militarily the conflict would be violent, but quick; and we would get the better of it, at least in the next ten years. Politically, there would be some loss of credibility on both sides, due to the failure to prevent the war. Trade disruptions would also have major Chinese domestic political consequences.”

A scenario where China cuts off exports of some key minerals for a year “in an effort to coerce or punish the United states… as well as to drive up commodity prices,” was also considered. There would be a $1.2 billion shortfall for the 72 minerals considered.

Complicating the assessment is the sometimes haphazard and fragmented nature of how rare earths are obtained from China: in the south of the country, tens of thousands of metric tonnes of rare earths are thought to be wrung from the ground, and refined and exported, by a chaotic chain of fly-by-night mining operators — none of those figures go into the official books. Estimates for that illicit activity range from 10,000 to 40,000 metric tonnes per year.

At the height of its production, Molycorp, a U.S.-based miner of rare earth elements that was hit hard by China’s rock-bottom prices, says it planned to produce 20,000 metric tonnes of product in 2012. This means the underground Chinese supply component could be as much as double the entire U.S. supply, which goes some way to illustrating the opaque and potentially volatile nature of Chinese supply.

“Think about how nervous that would make a Pentagon planner,” McGroarty says.
 

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Europium oxide finished as the week’s biggest mover – and, in fact, the only mover after dropping 4.5 percent.

Cerium oxide remained unchanged for the week. The price of dysprosium oxide did not change since the previous week.

Lanthanum oxide, neodymium, neodymium oxide and samarium oxide, among others, also remained essentially flat.

Following a 25.5 percent decline in price, yttria finished the month down hard. A 13.3 percent drop over the past month hit neodymium oxide. Lanthanum oxide prices dropped by 12.8 percent this month. Samarium oxide was down 9.5 percent for the month. After falling 6.8 percent, europium oxide finished the month down as well. Cerium oxide prices fell 6.0 percent. Praseodymium oxide prices decreased by 2.0 percent, and the value of praseodymium neodymium oxide weakened by 1.6 percent. In a whole, rare earth oxides prices fell down in the past week.
 

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The monthly Rare Earths MMI® slipped by one point, registering a value of 42 in April – a decrease of 2.3 percent from 43 in March.

Metalminer's rare earth  metal prices index continues as the worst performing MMI of all 10 MMI indexes.

“Like we have seen in previous months, we note that the entire Rare Earth index has not slid; rather, the slide comes down to a few key rare earth metals,” said Lisa Reisman, managing editor of MetalMiner.

“In particular, we see price weakness for yttria, samarium oxide, neodymium oxide, lanthanum oxide and europium oxide,” she continued.

The fact that that the price drops continue to impact only a handful of rare earth metals suggests to apply caution to any press or pundit statements slamming the entire sector. Price has been seen weakness in specific metals based upon the supply and demand fundamentals for that particular metal, but other rare earth metal prices remain well-supported, indicating a market in greater balance.

So despite the index registering a value of 42, Metalminer won't draw general conclusions that all rare earth metal prices have declined.
 

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Jiangxi Ganzhou Rare Earth Group was established on March 30. Zhang Anwen, Deputy Secretary General of the Chinese Society of Rare Earths (CSRE), said the establishment of Jiangxi Ganzhou Rare Earth Group marks the formation of “4+1” framework on China’s rare earth industry restructuring.

The “4+1” framework involves Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth (Group) Hi-Tech (hereinafter referred to as Baotou Steel Rare-Earth), Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco), China Minmetals Corporation, Rising Nonferrous Metals Share and Ganzhou Rare Earth Group.

Jiangxi Ganzhou Rare Earth Group is the parent company of Ganzhou Rare Earth Mineral Industry and is now the only owner of rare earth mining rights in Ganzhou. Namely, it owns all of the 44 rare earth mining rights in Jiangxi. The group will merge rare earth smelting & separating enterprises and application enterprises in Ganzhou, enabling it to have access to 70-80% of rare earth mining and smelting capacity in Ganzhou. It plans to produce 40,000 to 60,000 mt of rare earth, compared with China’s rare earth mining indicator of 90,000 mt for 2012.     

Back in May 2011, the State Council issued the Opinions on Promoting Sustainable and Healthy Development of Rare Earth Industry. According to the opinions, rare earth industry shall be dominated by large firms, and the industry concentration of top three ion-type rare earth enterprises must exceed 80%.

                  

China Minmetals Corporation, Chalco, China Non-ferrous Metal Industry’s Foreign Engineering and Construction (NFC), Jiangxi Copper, Rising Nonferrous Metals Share, Xiamen Tungsten and Ganzhou Rare Earth Industry all tried to join in the merging and restructuring of rare earth industry.

According to Mr. Zhang, Chalco has merged rare earth enterprises in Jiangsu. Rising Nonferrous Metals Share has been in charge of M&As of rare earth companies in Guangdong. Ganzhou Rare Earth Group will be responsible for rare earth industry integration in Ganzhou. China Minmetals Corporation intends to join in restructuring of Guangdong’s rare earth industry following its acquisition of some rare earth enterprises in Jiangxi, Guangxi and Hunan. Baotou Steel Rare-Earth will be responsible for M&As in rare earth industry in north China.

Rare earth industry restructuring in south and north China is led by Ganzhou Rare Earth Group and Baotou Steel Rare-Earth, respectively.

Light rare earth in north China is concentrated in Baotou in Inner Mongolia, Liangshan in Sichuan, Weishanhu in Shandong, while heavy rare earth in south China is centered on Jiangxi’s Ganzhou. Baotou Rare Earth, is actively seeking alliance with enterprises in Sichuan and Shandong.

Baiyun Erbo Rare Earth Mine is China’s biggest rare earth mine, containing 87.7% of rare earth. As Baotou Steel Rare-Earth’s rare earth industry integration accelerates, it will have access to more rare earth.

Heavy ion-type rare earth in Jiangxi accounts for roughly 40% of China’s total ion-type rare earth reserves, most of which is located in Ganzhou. All rare earth mining rights in Ganzhou are exclusively owned by Ganzhou Rare Earth Group.

Rising Nonferrous Metals Share also owns large quantities of rare earth. In comparison, China Minmetals Corporation and Chalco have less rare earth.
 

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