In view of global tungsten trend and forecast

Industry advisory body to Roskill Information Services company headquartered in London in a report entitled "Tungsten: to the market outlook for 2016 (10)" industry report pointed out that, in the 1990s, the global tungsten market is characterized by oversupplycheap tungsten products flooding the market from China. This means that the product prices far below the cost of production, the most western tungsten producers have had to stop production. However, since 2000, the Chinese government began to take action by imposing production and export quotas, and the cancellation of export tax rebates on tungsten products, its tungsten industry control.

Carbide Drills material is tungsten and cobalt steel. In the era of oversupply, manufacturers and government agencies to reserve a large number of tungsten. These reserves of tungsten market prices played a "braking" effect. Now, most of these reserves of tungsten have been sold since 2005/2006, the the tungsten price movements and their supply / demand fundamentals related growing.
The start of the global economic downturn in 2009, the price of tungsten has dropped sharply. Chinese ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices fell by more than 20% from the end of 2008 to early 2010, the price of tungsten in Europe has seen a similar decline. Such a price decline of about 92% occurred in the first half of 2009, to stabilize the price of tungsten shows early signs of the second half of 2009. As the global economy began to improve from the fourth quarter of 2009, demand for tungsten also rebounded. Throughout 2010, the general improvement of the degree of economic boom the tungsten price rose steadily. In 2011, due to the supply of tungsten is difficult to fully meet the needs of the economic recovery of tungsten, tungsten price rising trend was accelerated.
Compared with the price trend similar metals (such as cobalt, nickel, and molybdenum), the tungsten price movements show that the strong tungsten market fundamentals. 2009, tungsten price decline up to 25% (see January 2007), significantly less than the price of some other metal decreased (70% nickel, molybdenum 68%, 43% cobalt). Since the 2009 credit crisis and economic recession, the the tungsten price rise also more robust. July 2011, when the cobalt, nickel, and molybdenum prices are still lower than the January 2007 price level (price index for 64, 64 and 58, respectively), the price of tungsten has 180% of the price in January 2007. This seems to be a clear indication that a relatively tight supply of tungsten, when demand is low, the price is relatively strong, and now has been restored to its pre-crisis level of consumption of tungsten, a strong rise in its price.
Years (ie not including recycling), and initial production of tungsten production rose steadily, from 35,650 tons of tungsten in 1998 increased to 56,500 tons of tungsten in 2008, an average annual growth rate of 4.7%. 2009, despite a sharp decline in demand for tungsten, tungsten production was further increased to approximately 61,500 tons of tungsten. This is almost entirely because of China's tungsten production increased 7,500 tons of Chinese tungsten consumption continues to grow, although other countries of the world economy was in trouble, but. 2010, with a further increase of Chinese tungsten production, global tungsten production again jumped to nearly 70,000 tons.

Historically, the initial production of tungsten can not fully meet the market demand, the need to make up the gap in the market through the sale of reserves tungsten. Most of these reserve materials are the former Soviet Union countries, but it is believed to now have been depleted. Strategic reserves of tungsten in the United States continued to decrease in speed of about 2,000-3,000 tons per year.
2009 credit crisis and subsequent economic recession means that most of the tungsten resource development projects have to consider the situation of the capital market. Two years ago, for any project financing are very difficult, even now, still limited funds there is a fierce competition. As a result, due to the commissioning of financing delays, the most important tungsten ore development projects are delayed at least 12 to 18 months. Beginning in 2011, with some projects have been delayed by the credit crunch put into operation, the production of tungsten ore may appear relatively strong growth. Most of the new project is expected to be commissioned in 2013-2015, but can not rule out the possibility of further delay commissioning date, which means that the significant growth of the tungsten production may occur in the period 2014-2016. The Roskill company forecast 2011 global tungsten mineral amount may be increased to 72,000 tons of tungsten, 2016, is expected to reach about 100,000 tons of tungsten.
 Recovery throughout 2010 and 2011, half a year, the economic recession caused by the credit crisis as most economies outside China as well as a corresponding increase in demand for tungsten, tungsten prices have been strong gains. To the end of September 2011, the price of domestic APT 450-460 U.S. dollars / metric ton, compared with the beginning of 2011, prices of $ 330 / metric ton, in the beginning of 2010, the price is only $ 200 / t degrees. APT price is much higher than the previous (June 2005) peak price ($ 300 / metric ton).
 The Roskill Company expects the tungsten market will fluctuate around a balanced level, 2011 and 2012, before the new supply entering the market, the tungsten market will remain in short supply in the state. The Roskill now expected in 2013, a time point will be the inflection point of the tungsten market supply exceeds demand. Assume that most of the plans tungsten mine development projects in production, it can be expected that the market appears to excess supply. However, if the time of the new supply entering the market further postponed, will soon be formed to outstrip supply, tungsten prices will remain higher than expected levels (likely to be extended to 2014).
APT in view of the current price level, Roskill expects APT average price for the whole year of 2011 will rise to a forecast $ 430 / t. 2012, is expected to only a handful of important new tungsten ore project substantially to market large supply of tungsten products, therefore, the market will continue to rely on existing manufacturer to respond to any demand growth. In view of this, Roskill expects tungsten supply will be further strained, so prices will rise further in 2012, the average price of APT will reach 475 U.S. dollars / ton.
2013-2015 period, with most of the plans of the new tungsten production capacity is expected to enter the market, is expected the tungsten price upward pressure will alleviate. Expected demand for tungsten will be continued growth after 2016, and thus generate more pressure on the supply side, and require the addition of new capacity.

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