Rationalize the supply and demand of rare earth prices are expected to bottom out

Under the influence of a series of policy control, the continued downturn in rare earth prices show signs of stabilizing. Analysts pointed out that, as the industry gradually straighten out the relationship between supply and demand, rare earth prices are expected to come out of the bottom. As this year was the most sluggish non-ferrous metals sub-sector, rare earth plate layout point is slowly opened.

Policy development effort to rationalize the industry supply and demand

With different base and precious metals, rare earth prices was more affected industry supply and demand, the relative weakening of the financial attributes. With the introduction of control policies, had continued to slump down the rare earth prices are expected to stabilize as the supply-demand relationship and gradually out of the bottom.

On the supply side the rare earth industry, the recent introduction of special rectification actions or will have a profound impact. In related news, the Ministry in October issued an "organized campaign against rare illegal acts special action letter" clearly put forward since October 10, 2014 to March 31, 2015, to carry out special operations nationwide strike RE illegal acts . Action will be divided into three phases: October 10 to November 25 for self-examination stage, November 26 to January 31, 2015 for rectification stage in 2015, February 1 to March 31 for acceptance summary stage. This action will jointly investigate rare earth mining, production, distribution companies of illegal mining, illegal trading and processing of minerals, tax evasion charges, billing and other acts of illegal products in different places, to focus on priority areas investigated 2- rare earth according to invoices and reports and other clues three typical cases.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department also recently released the 2015 export quota Metal Industries varieties. Among them, tungsten, molybdenum quota has been canceled. Thus market expectations, higher cancellation policy further in 2015 rare earth export quota of certainty.

On the supply is expected to shrink, while there have been some industry needs to pick up signs. On the one hand, with the external economy recovers, demand for rare earths started to show some signs of recovery. On the other hand, the state purchasing and storage of rare earths has also been expanded. According to media reports, this year's total purchasing and storage still about 10,000 tons of rare earth, which plans Shouchu neodymium oxide, praseodymium 4000 tons, 1200 tons dysprosium oxide, praseodymium, neodymium oxide, 500 tons each, basic maintenance revenue reserves last year. From a price perspective, the reserve price is determined in accordance with the basic six months before the average price of neodymium oxide, praseodymium reserve price than the market price of the floating rate of about 2%, dysprosium oxide reserve price rises than the market price of about for 10%, other varieties are generally higher than the market price. Shouchu direct effect on the demand side, so the history of the purchasing and storage for rare-earth prices are relatively significant boost.

From the latest look at rare earth prices, the severity of the rare earth oxide prices fell last week, 1.04% and 0.64%; heavy rare earth dysprosium, terbium rose 1.77% and 0.97%, respectively, praseodymium, neodymium fell 1.40 percent. Analysts believe that the rare earth industry has undergone significant improvement in the relationship between supply and demand, but by the fourth quarter of influence consumer off-season, short-term rare earth prices are expected to remain at the bottom of the shock trend.

RE plate layout window on the left asymptotic

There is a market statistics show that in the first three quarters of this year, non-ferrous metals sector as a whole rose by about 30 percent. Among them, lithium plate by the impact of new energy vehicles, or up to 80%; ranked second magnetic material gains, up more than 40%; non-ferrous metal plate in the rare earth sector rose to become the smallest sub-sectors. In the recent market fresh scratch "compensatory growth of wind" when many investors attention on the rare earth sector also began to improve. In this regard, analysts pointed out that the short-term rare earth plate depends on whether up or when rare earth prices bottom out, but taking into account the industry boom has bottomed out, so the left side of the layout point of time is expected not far away.

China Merchants Securities (market, interrogation) research report that, taking into account changes in the macro side and microscopic double face, November is still recommended in the "warm winter" in the search for a better risk-benefit ratio of non-ferrous metal varieties. Analysts pointed out that hitting eight ministries rare special action finally entered the implementation stage, "malfeasance Responsibility, normality pressure against tax mobilize local initiative" is the outstanding feature of this special action. According to Rare Earth Forum, expected in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, the rare earth policy and China's rare earth industry will enter a critical period of development, the promising investment opportunities in the rare earth sector "institutional dividend" under. To have the "volume and price go" light rare earth-based, it is recommended layout while continuing to actively choose the relevant subject.

How to determine the outlook for rare earth prices, GF Securities (market, interrogation) research report that the effect of this rare earth smuggling worth the wait. Since 2014, rare earths prices tumbled, there should have been at the bottom. It is worth noting that industry-related management action point in time the end of the shopping season coincides with the rare earth industry, it is expected that the recent rare earth prices are expected to bottom out after the end of treatment action to be related industries, rare earth prices are expected to appear rose significantly. In the specific tracking targets, analysts recommend that investors focus on "Bo Exchange, praseodymium, neodymium electronic disk" and "rich in yttrium-europium mine," the price of the two products, as an important indicator to judge the rare earth market price movements.


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