How Will Trump’s Taking Office Affect Sino-US Relationship

As a successful business man without political experience, Trump’s taking office is sure to be a fresh new look to America and will affect the world politics and economy in a new era.

Relationship between Trump and Putin is sensational and has caught various attention. However, more and more indication shows that Trump administration is going to have potential conflicts with China in terms of military, politics, economy, trade.

Military
Last week, secretary of the USA Rex Tillerson held the attitude toward artificial island in South China Sea at nomination hearing that America will show its tough policy. It is also intended to notify Beijing part that they are restricted to enter these islands. It seems America is going to block the islands where China has been constructing military facilities. China will definitely break through by air force or navy. This may boost the market of tungsten heavy alloy which is widely used in military industry.

Politics
Since the resumption of Sino-US relationship in 1979, America has been respected ‘One China’ policy which regards Taiwan as renegade province. For years, there have never been US leaders to have direct talk with Taiwan leaders. In December, 2016, the convention is broke with Trump answering phone call from Tsai Ing-wen. Last week, Trump emphasized in an interview that US government will abandon ‘One China’ policy if china do not give concession in trade. China declared to choose war instead of Taiwan being independent.

Economy
Trump has been criticized China during the election speech’ We have 5000 dollars of trade deficit with China, we are not going to allow China to rape our country’. Peter Navarro, widely known as a trade protectionist, author of ‘Death by China’, nominated as responsible officer of National Trade Council, also indicated trade protectionism will be Trump’s policy. Rumors said that America is going to have custom tax and add a new importing tax for Chinese commodity. Trump also promises to make rejuvenation of American industry including increase employment rate. It is hard to maintain enterprises without economy efficiency. The US government is deficiency in supporting the market economy, whoever is going to be the incumbent president. As a result, for tungsten or steel enterprises, it is probably going to be an opportunity.

Although the above three ‘T’s (Taiwan, Tillerson and Trade) may be the potential threat to China, oversee the current situation we are in, the overall state is positive. China will and always firmly adheres to the peaceful development path and hold its clear stance of ‘One China’ policy. And will never allow any behavior to challenge its sovereignty and territorial integrity. China is taking indirect measures to deal with the US military policy of South part of China sea such as adding pressure to alert South Korea on the deployment of THAAD, detaining of 9 armored vehicle in HK of Singapore, aircraft carrier went through Taiwan Straits, military planes flying across Japan Sea.

China publishes its economy data that gross GDP exceeds 70 trillion and will maintain a stable growth. However, it also brings asset bubble and economic gap. If Trump issues challenge on the geopolitics, China will be forced to increase military armament. Challenges and opportunities are always coexistent.

About the trade protectionism, President Xi Jinping delivered an important speech at the Davos meeting on Jan.17^th, 2017, in which he stated China's commitment to promoting global free trade and investment and liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment through opening-up and firm opposition to protectionism. No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war.

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