Why Smart Money Is Buying Junior Strategic Metal Miners

Recently, you’ve been writing about the beginning of a new inflationary cycle and an uptick in inflation. How does the new inflationary environment differ from where we’ve been since the financial crisis?

For several months, there has been a surprising rebound in the Chinese and Asian markets as evidenced by strong demand and associated price increases in iron ore, copper, industrial metals, uranium, the heavy rare earth elements (HREEs) and platinum. For a long time, investors predicted a hard landing in China—and they have been wrong. As a result, we’re seeing a very powerful “risk-on” rally. Investor expectations over the past couple of years have been for deflation and the associated “risk-off” trade. The situation is beginning to flip and inflation expectations are beginning to creep back into investors’ minds. The early investors and the smart money are making “risk-on” trades as equities hit new highs and as investors flee currencies.

The numbers show that the Chinese economy is rebounding strongly. Banks are lending, and investments for commodities are increasing. After almost two years of economic contraction in China, I believe the Chinese economy decisively turned upward as of year-end 2012. For approximately the last two years, metals prices consolidated while the bond and the equity markets rallied. Notably, the bond market rallied before the equity market. Times when bonds and equities outperform commodities are usually predictive of inflation. Eventually, profits should flow from equities to commodities in the traditional inflationary business cycle. It is only a matter of time before capital hits the commodity and junior mining markets.

I believe the strongest evidence that an inflationary rally has started is the outperformance of industrial metals, as well as precious metals that have an industrial component, such as platinum and silver. Copper is beginning to outperform gold. For the past two years, as markets were risk-off, gold outperformed. However, from 2000 to 2008 before the credit crisis, the industrial metals and the miners outperformed the risk-off assets. We’re beginning to see a rotation from a deflationary cycle to an inflationary cycle. All the money that’s been pumped into the system by central banks worldwide and this competitive currency devaluation in order to boost anemic economies may be unleashing the beginnings of a long-term inflationary rally.

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