2025 China Tungsten Market Price Forecast

Analysis of latest China tungsten market from Chinatungsten Online

The tungsten products industry is a small segment of the overall economy, akin to a single cell in the organism of society. Therefore, the broader sociopolitical and economic environment inevitably has a decisive impact on the tungsten products sector.

In our previous analysis, we predicted that the price of tungsten products in 2025 would remain largely stable, primarily because tungsten products experienced a price increase of around 15% in 2024. As a relatively stable industrial product in terms of usage, it is unlikely to sustain rapid growth over the long term. However, given the relative scarcity of upstream raw materials, maintaining prices close to the levels at the end of 2024 would represent a reasonable and favorable state.

A more critical factor in forecasting tungsten product prices is the global and domestic economic trends and risks in 2025.

Global Economic Trends:

According to OECD projections, global economic growth is expected to reach 3.2% in 2024 and remain largely unchanged in 2025, with a marginal increase of 0.01%. The IMF has identified several key challenges to global economic growth in 2025:

Geopolitical tensions.

Rising trade protectionism.

High levels of government debt.

Significant volatility in financial markets.

Key Global Uncertainties in 2025:

Whether policies implemented by the U.S. Trump administration will enhance the resilience of the U.S. economy or trigger a series of risks.

Whether China's unconventional counter-cyclical, proactive, and expansionary policies can drive stable and rapid economic growth or continue its current trajectory.

Whether European countries, particularly Germany and France (the dual engines of the EU), can overcome prolonged economic stagnation through political and economic reforms in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and high-priced oil and gas pushed by the U.S.

Whether Japan will continue its interest rate hikes and end the "weak yen" trend, and whether South Korea's political turbulence will stabilize, preventing severe economic damage.

Under the shadow of trade protectionism, such as Trump's 60% tariff on China and 25% on Mexico and Canada, whether global supply chain restructuring and the large-scale relocation of excess capacity will sustain emerging markets' attractiveness for external capital investment.

Outlook for 2025:

In the face of such numerous uncertainties, we adopt a neutral stance toward the global economy and China’s economy, which accounts for 17% of the world’s GDP.

Prices of tungsten products on December 8, 2024

Picture of tungsten alloy bars 

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