China's Tungsten Market in the First Half of 2024: A Three-Phase Price Trend Analysis

Analysis of latest tungsten market from Chinatungsten Online

In the first half of 2024, China's tungsten market experienced a trend of rising to a peak and then falling back, driven by fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, financial conditions, and market sentiment. The price trends of tungsten products can be roughly divided into three stages:

(1) Moderate Uptrend from January to March:

During this period, the atmosphere of the Chinese New Year was strong, and the market saw a weak supply-demand dynamic. Mining operations reduced production and underwent maintenance before the holiday, and post-holiday recovery was slow due to the influence of the national Two Sessions and mineral rights enforcement work. Additionally, the first batch of annual tungsten mining quotas saw the first decrease in five years, leading to a relatively tight supply side, which dominated the market trend within an upward range. In the first quarter, the prices of tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate (APT) increased by approximately 3.3%.

(2) Rapid Surge from April to Mid-May:

During this phase, global economic uncertainty and heightened international geopolitical tensions drove strong rallies in safe-haven assets such as gold, oil, natural gas, and copper. Against this backdrop, the strategic resource value of tungsten rose, leading to increased financial market interventions and strong speculative sentiment among traders. Coinciding with the rainy season in the south and the arrival of the Central Environmental Protection Inspection Team in major tungsten-producing areas like Jiangxi and Hunan, the supply gap on the tungsten mine side continued to widen, pushing prices to historic highs with a year-to-date increase of nearly 30%. Cost-driven price increases in tungsten refining products and hard alloys followed suit.

(3) Decline from Late May to End of June:

As the impact of environmental factors gradually subsided, the fervor in the commodity market cooled, and the tungsten market entered a profit-taking cycle. Supply-side support weakened gradually, and the bearish impact of weak demand was relatively amplified. Market sentiment turned pessimistic, and the market faced downward pressure. According to statistics from China Tungsten Online, as of June 28, 2024, the price of tungsten concentrate had fallen by about 9.6% from its peak, but still had a year-to-date increase of over 15%. APT prices dropped 9% from their peak, with a year-to-date increase of 16.5%. Tungsten powder prices fell by 6.6% from their peak, with a year-to-date increase of 18.7%, while tungsten carbide powder prices fell by 5.9% from their peak, with a year-to-date increase of 19.4%. The price of 70% ferrotungsten dropped by 5.2% from its peak, with a year-to-date increase of 25%.

Prices of tungsten products on July 1, 2024

Picture of ammounium metatungstate

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