Tungsten Prices Have Been Rising Rapidly Since the Holiday of May Day

Analysis of latest tungsten market from Chinatungsten Online

1.All tungsten products rose by more than 20%, and hard alloys are difficult to describe in a few words

Recently, tungsten prices have been rising rapidly, basically confirming the judgment of more than 20% increase by Chinatungsteng Online at the end of 2023 and recently. According to statistics from Chinatungsteng Online, as of May 13th, the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate was $21,714.3/ton, with an increase of 23.6% since the beginning of the year; the price of 65% white tungsten concentrate was $21,571.4/ton, with an increase of 24.8% since the beginning of the year; ammonium paratungstate (APT) was $364.8/mtu, with an increase of 24.2% since the beginning of the year; tungsten powder was $47,857.1/ton, with an increase of 22.7% since the beginning of the year; tungsten carbide powder was $47,142.9/ton, with an increase of 23.1% since the beginning of the year; and 70% tungsten ferro was $31,571.4/ton, with an increase of 25.6% since the beginning of the year.

Recently, the price of tungsten has risen sharply. Chinatungsteng Online, as the leading WeChat public account and professional information source in the industry, hopes to reflect market information more accurately and promptly. Over the weekend, it organized consultations with the most representative responsible persons of several major tungsten product companies in the country, as well as heavyweight professionals at the forefront of production, procurement, and trade, to conduct serious consultations and research, summarizing the latest views, predictions, warnings, etc., of industry experts, for reference by followers.

2.Tungsten price fluctuations are intertwined with market factors, scarcity is the underlying logic

Current tungsten market situation: Tungsten ore prices are rising, APT prices are lagging behind costs, tungsten powder prices are rising, hard alloys are slow to respond, and deep processing is disturbed, making it difficult for tungsten prices to continue to rise.

Currently, delayed deliveries from suppliers are common, and tungsten ore traders intend to continue pushing prices higher, while smelters and tungsten material and alloy companies are more for the purpose of avoiding the risk of cost inversion and are cautious about signing contracts.

In this round of price hikes, businesses with considerable inventories have benefited, while those with small or no inventories have been greatly impacted by the wave, facing the greatest pressure.

In the speculative market, traders are pushing prices higher step by step, with fewer deals settled in advance and generally holding onto goods to seek the best profit opportunities.

Short-term tungsten price forecast: Bullish in early and mid-May, stabilizing in late May, and it is recommended to be more cautious in trading. A turning point may occur in June.

The bow is full and easy to break. The high-risk brought about by excessive and irrational price hikes is continuously accumulating. The so-called "the higher the rise, the harder the fall" prediction may be broken.

The rapid rise in tungsten prices will reshape the industry. Relatively speaking, leading companies or those with unique technologies/skills have higher product prices, larger profit margins, and stronger ability to digest unfavorable factors in the short term. Therefore, they are less affected. Small and medium-sized enterprises, especially those with serious homogeneity in mid-to-low-end processing, face the greatest pressure and may have to undergo horizontal or vertical integration in the future, or even face elimination.

3.At the macro level, the tungsten market outlook is optimistic in the long term

The central government's fifth ecological environmental protection inspection group will stay for one month from May 9 to June 9, 2024, which is a key node.

Influenced by the central environmental protection inspection action, some small and medium-sized smelters in Ganzhou have stopped production, exacerbating the tense situation in the tungsten raw material supply chain.

In the first quarter of 2024, China's foreign trade situation was very good overall, with new highs in the "three new things," and the export of electromechanical products increased significantly. The scale of imports and exports broke through 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period in history, and the growth rate of imports and exports reached a new high in six quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 5%. Among them, exports were 5.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.9%. In the first quarter, China's exports of electromechanical products amounted to 3.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.8%, accounting for 59.2% of the total exports; among them, exports of computers and their components, automobiles, and ships increased by 8.6%, 21.7%, and 113.1% respectively.

Chinatungsteng Online believes that the China Tungsten Resources Strategic Seminar will be held in Nanning on May 21-22, 2024. The conference will gather important industry enterprises in tungsten mining, tungsten smelting, tungsten trade, and other sectors, and connect government, industry, academia, research, and application to analyze policies, exchange technologies, judge the industry, and possibly collide with and produce consensus during the conference. Therefore, this conference may have a significant impact on future tungsten prices!

Therefore, Chinatungsteng Online believes that in the future, tungsten products such as hard alloys in China will experience a significant increase. Based on a comprehensive consideration of macro and micro factors such as the global economy, international relations, geopolitics, price trends, and market supply and demand margins, it is expected that tungsten product prices will fluctuate slightly in the short term and rise in the long term in 2024.

Prices of tungsten products on May 14, 2024

China tungsten price image

Picture of black tungsten wire

black tungsten wire image

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