Skyrocketing, When Does the Price of Cobalt Drop?

Cobalt is the most dazzling star in the nonferrous metal market in 2017. The international cobalt price has risen since 2016. After September 2017, the price of cobalt hit a climax. Almost every day it was boiling. According to rough calculations, the cobalt price at the end of the year doubled compared with the beginning of the year.

Cobalt is the second main material made of cemented carbide, which is closely related to the cost and price of cemented carbide products. In an enquiry on January 4, Xiaobian learned that the cobalt quotations of major manufacturers in China had reached 670 yuan / kg, and there was still a possibility of rising before the year. The rising cost of cobalt is obviously affecting the cost of our cemented carbide enterprises and the entire tungsten products industry. The main components of cemented carbide are tungsten carbide and cobalt oxide. Cobalt is used as adhesive phase because of its characteristics. Although the price of tungsten is also rising, the rise of the momentum is stable, and cobalt has been soaring, therefore, there is an expert analysis that the current price of cobalt ore speculation is larger, there is an unknown risk.

As we all know, the reserves area of cobalt ore is not China. The rise of cobalt price is not more than two reasons for supply and demand: one is that cobalt is classified as one of 3TG metals, its main raw mineral supply is around the Great Lakes region of Africa, the main supplier is Congo (gold), the situation is chaotic, the two is the policy subsidy of the national new energy vehicle, and the three yuan battery plate is brought to large. Together with the fund, cobalt is mainly used in the cathode material of three yuan lithium battery, which can obviously enhance the energy density of lithium batteries. People in the industry believe that although China is the largest cobalt smelting and processing country, many African mines are laid out, but China has no cobalt collection advantages, no absolute control of resources, and more "small metal" than tungsten, which is more likely to be speculation and speculation. There are also rumors that international giants are trying to hoard goods and sell them, which will enlarge the contradiction between supply and demand of cobalt and send cobalt prices to rockets.

The battery industry consumes 60% of the cobalt concentrate. The triple battery is the main factor driving the growth of the cobalt price rocket. But the fact is that the fuel vehicles are still in mass production. The new energy pure electric vehicles are only a concept-oriented. Three-cell battery vehicles are still defective, there is no large-scale popularization, and cobalt is not a long-term scarce resource. The amount of use is about 10%, which is a kind of accessory at most, and there is basically no shortage of supply. If the supply is tight, then electric cars will become popular in the future. Cobalt will rise to the same price as gold.

Therefore, at present, the speculative factor of cobalt price is greater than its supply and demand factors. The rise of cobalt price has caused a surge of capital market, and many people have benefited from it. And the so-called "some people are happy, some worry", our alloy manufacturing industry should be those who are accidentally injured and are worrying, the cost of production pressure suddenly increased. At present, cobalt still does not return to the highest price of history, the speculator will possibly borrow further to raise the price. Most of us have the psychology of rising and falling. The more prudent it is, the more it is at this time, the cobalt price does not have real demand support, and the so-called new energy concept is not blinded by the so-called new energy concept, which is just the topic of speculation. In 2030, fuel vehicles will be banned, and three yuan batteries will become mainstream? I'm sorry, the plan will never catch up with the changes. The future of new energy vehicles will not be only a kind of battery car. If the technology does not break through, lithium-based battery pure electric vehicles will be short-lived, from the perspective of long-term technical development, lithium battery bottleneck is obvious, is a transitional technology products that may be eliminated at any time.

No matter how good the concept is, it can not afford to be hyped up. In 2017, the Chinese people paid excessive attention and enthusiasm to the pure electric vehicles, which led to the contradiction between supply and demand of cobalt and the cobalt price was continuously overdrawn. But the current situation of the pure electric vehicle industry at present is that most of the electric cars and battery enterprises in China do not have the core competes. They can only rub the heat and get mixed up in the low end field. Our electric vehicle industry is growing too fast but is bad, consuming a lot of raw materials but also big. As the quantity of low quality products, with the heat decline, 2018-2019 years of pure electric vehicles and its battery market will start a new round of shuffle, more than 80% of the waste capacity will be eliminated, the demand for cobalt will be weakened, and the price discourse right will return to the hands of the manufacturing enterprises. Besides, it is not scarce and the price will return to a reasonable level.
(Chinatungsten Online: Weiping)

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