The price of devolution

 

In the lead up to devolution, concerns were raised that the resource revenues promised in the deal with Canada would not be enough to outweigh the high costs of taking on additional responsibility.

 

So far, the deal has indeed under-delivered, at least in terms of revenues. Despite originally estimating that it could collect a share totalling $60 million for the year, the GNWT lowered its estimate for the 2014-15 fiscal year to closer to $40 million. Based on the continued downturn in mining, oil and gas in the territory, it’s likely that 2015-16 will see similar figures.

 

To add to that, we still don’t have a clear enough picture of the total costs of devolution to fully understand if the benefits of northern control are truly outweighing the liabilities.

 

While the GNWT is probably not planning any further acquisitions of resource properties in the near future, the move to save Mactung raises red flags, not only about the dire state of global resource markets, but the lengths the government is willing to go to try to salvage the industry for the sake of resource revenues.

 

We may still be in the throes of the post-devolution evolution, but it seems rather doubtful that acquiring a mining property was what territorial leaders — and residents — had in mind when they said they wanted more control over lands, water and resources in the NWT. By throwing this property a taxpayer-funded lifeline, the GNWT has set a dangerous precedent for a struggling sector and revealed its own economic panic.

Tungsten price climb will be slow: analysts

 

Critics in the Dehcho had long grumbled about NATCL’s properties, which despite geographically resting — at least somewhat, in the case of Mactung — in the Northwest Territories, really only contributed economically to the Yukon in terms of jobs, while leaving the NWT with all the risk.

 

For Cantung, that risk now lies with Canada. While NATCL has indicated it hopes to resume operations at the mine (which closed on Oct. 27 following 80 layoffs in the spring) by next summer, that’s going to depend on financing.

 

Tungsten prices are currently bottoming out at around $180 per MT, down significantly from their 2010 climb to around $450. Although current forecasts peg the price of tungsten as poised to rise over the next few years, the recovery from this 10-year low is likely to be slow.

 

“I think we will see the price begin to rise slowly as economic demand recovers, but it is going to be nothing dramatic,” analyst Chris Ecclestone of Hallgarten & Company said in a recent interview with Tungsten Investing News.

 

“If financing improves for the mining sector, it’s not going to be a case of everyone in the mining sector suddenly being able to get money. It will probably be gold projects and big base metals projects getting funding before specialty metals.”

 

An optimistic view places the price of tungsten closer to $200 by the end of the year and possibly $300 by the end of 2016, but the light at the end of the tunnel is conditional upon a lot of what-ifs, most notably what China — tungsten’s biggest exporter — decides to do about regulating its production.

 

So what if the price never rebounds?

Extra securities not received

 

Prior to Cantung’s closure, concerns were raised by regular members of the legislative assembly about the danger of leaving taxpayers on the hook for the mine. Recently retired Weledeh MLA Bob Bromley questioned whether the securities would be enough to clean up the property if it went under, a fear sprung from the bungling of Yellowknife’s defunct Giant Mine.

 

As with Giant, the federal government is now responsible for Cantung’s remediation. While the tungsten operation promises to leave a much less permanent and hazardous mark on the landscape than Giant’s 237,000 tonnes of arsenic trioxide, environmental groups have already raised concerns about the need for independent oversight.

 

Along with the mine, Canada was also handed the security bonds collected from NATCL. As of last spring, the amount in pocket was just over $11 million. In June, the regulator requested the company pony up an additional $19 million in securities for the mine, bringing the total to $30.95 million.

 

But according to the GNWT, that extra security deposit was never received, and there is no other word on whether or not it will — or can — still be collected from the bankrupt company.

During the work program conducted in August 2015, 490 soil samples were collected throughout the property. The samples were collected by means of hand-held augers. Sampling was conducted along east-west traverses and locally adjacent to the main paved road which transects the property from north to south. The soil samples were submitted to ALS Minerals for tungsten analysis by Lithium Metaborate Fusion and Inductively Coupled Plasma – Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Soil samples from multiple regions of the property returned greater than 100 parts per million (ppm) tungsten, including a sample from the southern region of the property which returned 1380 ppm tungsten.

 

The program identified local tungsten soil anomalies in the northern half of the property. Tungsten mineralization was documented in this northern region as per publically available reports filed during the 1980s by Kidd Creek Mines Ltd. (assessment reports filed with the Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Natural Resources). Tungsten mineralization was confirmed in rubble and bedrock at two close-spaced quarries in this region during the August 2015 rock sampling program which was completed concurrently with the soil sampling program. Multiple grab samples of quarry rubble assayed greater than 5% WO3 (Great Atlantic Resources News Release of November 19, 2015). The soil sampling program confirmed tungsten soil anomalies (up to 116 ppm W) in the general area of these two quarries, interpreted by company management to be associated with the tungsten mineralization at the quarries. The program confirmed tungsten soil anomalies in three areas northwest, north and northeast of these quarries with up to 402 ppm W. Company management interpret these particular soil anomalies to possibly represent separate sources of tungsten mineralization as they are not in the documented down-ice glacial direction from the two quarries.

 

Dave Martin, vice president of exploration at Great Atlantic, commented:

 

The 2015 soil sampling identified tungsten anomalies in the area of known tungsten mineralization at the two northern quarries confirming that soil sampling is a useful exploration tool in this area. The program was successful in confirming tungsten anomalies elsewhere on the property, establishing targets for further work in addition to the two northern quarries.