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Learning from history the logic behind the study of rare earth rose

Details: Category: Rare Earth News; Published on Thursday, 18 July 2013 14:07; Written by HJF; Hits: 1940

Recent rare earth oxides and rare earth company stock prices rise together, as of July 16, praseodymium oxide price of 395,000 - 405,000, compared with the previous day rose 5,000 yuan, metal praseodymium price 430,000 - 440,000, compared with the day before rose 5,000 yuan; addition, since since June 28, Sheng and resources Minmetals Rare Earth rises up to 62.61%, respectively, 51.76%. However, in the case of imbalance between supply and demand fundamentals, this rally has become a bit "strange", study the fundamental reorganization seems to lie in Ganzhou Rare Earth private traders arising ore stockpile purpose of this paper is to explore the logic behind the rise.

Investment Advisor in the industry and Policy Research Center Director Hu Zhi Liang said that may have an impact on the round up of the main factors in the following aspects: First, the Baotou Rare Earth plant shutdown, although this will not affect the Baotou Rare Earth itself rare earth smelting , but will cause the market to reduce the supply of rare earth minerals; Second, the recent Ministry of Environmental Protection to increase environmental remediation efforts, although for the steel, cement and other two high-industries, but will undoubtedly reveal convey to the outside world government structural adjustment, governance pollution determination, the same as the chemical pollution of the rare earth industry inevitably will face environmental remediation risks; Third Ganzhou combat rare private mine, but reportedly Ganzhou is the MIIT against private mine the first leg of follow-up will continue in other provinces City of conduct; Fourth round down cycle has been far more than in the past, the market has increased demand;

To hammer out the basic support, this study adopted exclusion.

First look at the first factor, according to the announcement of Baotou Steel Rare Earth, one reason for the plant shutdown to comply with national totals control plan, and second, in order to control the pollution of the tailings dam, the other from the Baotou Rare Earth published financial data can be seen, since 2011, the amount of inventories Baotou Steel Rare Earth has been in a rising state in the first quarter reached 8.3 billion yuan more as much as seen in the overall market downturn and the significant improvement in the case of Baotou Steel Rare Earth reason With the pollution and digest some inventory. Of course, the plant shutdown will inevitably affect the supply of rare earth oxides, causing a certain degree of market volatility.

Let's look at the second factor, the Baotou Rare Earth concentrator One reason is to cut pollution, and Ganzhou Rare Earth private mining against a certain extent, this also implies the meaning, but the current state of the rare earth industry, the overall ideas of governance is still is integrated to enhance the right to speak, and compared to the iron and steel, cement and other big polluters, the rare earth industry pollution to light many, at least for now the signs are so exposed. Therefore, in overall funding, energy limited circumstances, on the rare earth industry to carry out environmental remediation big move less likely.

Let's look at the third factor, Ganzhou Rare Earth Rare Earth is not the first time against private mines, and the country is also not the first time against private mine, but every combat effectiveness of private mines are not significant. The reason is that the private mine is more like a combat sport specific, difficult to sustain, and lower private investment in mining, mostly in the deep forests of them, even the unprecedented crackdown and took a landfill pit spot Feng Ting equipment and various other practices, however, if the lack of an effective mechanism for the resurgence of private mines may still exist.

Furthermore, even if the Baotou Rare Earth plant shutdown, or even all the rare earth mine were completely destroyed private to current inventory levels Baotou Steel Rare Earth, the overall rare earth production, fully meet the needs of the downstream market downturn. By process of elimination, we can conclude that caused skyrocketing rare earth round the root cause lies in the aforementioned fourth factor, that is, the market itself has increased demand, and we have demonstrated the aforementioned upper and lower ends are not fundamental, therefore, the fourth factor mainly reflected in the end, that is, smelting links, trade links.

If you only consider the supply and demand ends, the two are matched, but in the middle of smelting, trade distorting aspects of the entire market supply and demand. First, from the smelting sectors, despite a certain state regulations smelting separation indicators, but the integration process in order to get more big right to speak, has the resources to enter midstream smelting enterprises to accelerate the separation of the field, no resources, accelerate the expansion of smelting enterprises separation capacity, resulting in separation of smelting capacity far beyond the rare earth mining index. Therefore, part of the non-resource smelting enterprises in order to ensure adequate separation of the market, they are bound to turn to private mine fields. This is against private Ganzhou Rare Earth Mining in the entire supply base to produce such a large impact.

From the point of view of traders, far more than the previous down cycle, has let them overly sensitive to market an urgent need to ease up their frayed nerves, it can be said is they round stockpile extrinsic nerves reaction.

Thus, together, round up like firewood met Agni, with three east, and finally evolved from a spark to start a prairie fire, but in the case of a solid foundation, the fire will eventually prompt was extinguished.

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Magnets rare earth smelting processing volume reduction drop unprofitable

Details: Category: Rare Earth News; Published on Thursday, 18 July 2013 14:03; Written by HJF; Hits: 1827

From raw material prices, the first half average price of neodymium oxide, praseodymium 301,000 / ton, down 29%, a decline of 12% dysprosium oxide 1847.4 yuan / kg, down 63 percent, a decline of 45%. Press N50 prices, the average price of 221.8 yuan in the first half Magnets / kg, down 29 percent, a decline of 14%. Based on projections, we estimate unpublished results notice other results are as follows: Baotou Steel Rare Earth, net profit fell more than 80%; Rising colored, half loss; Ningbo Yunsheng, net profit fell 50%.

Rare earth prices stabilize reason. In mid-June after a slight rebound in rare earth prices stabilize and, peers generally considered rare earth prices bottoming out of the industry pose a greater good, and the secondary market has recently experienced a wave bigger bounce. We recognize the conclusions of rare earth prices bottomed out, however, whether the industry constitutes a positive, we need to find the cause of rare earth prices rebound. Processing enterprises from the first half performance magnetics situation speculated that in the first half sales fell Magnets 10% -30%, up 20% -40%, overall still in the doldrums, can not support the upstream supply of rare earth market remains current for more than demand situation. Contrast upstream company profits, we can see that the first half of 2012 Rising colored Baotou Steel Rare Earth and sales gross profit margin was 48.75% and 14.76%, sales margin was 29.26% and 1.63%, while the first half of 2013 light rare average price fell 29 percent, the heavy rare earth price fell 63%, rare earth smelting enterprises in the profit or loss for the state, which we can conclude: Rare earth prices bottoming out from the cost of support.

As rare earth smelting enterprises already in the low-profit status, rare earth prices will support the acquisition costs, it is difficult to continue to decline, but the state of oversupply in the rare earth, rare earth prices rebound height is limited. Next longer period of time, rare earth smelting enterprises will go to production capacity in the state, is difficult to improve performance. Magnets same excess capacity, rare earth prices continue to decline no longer the case, we believe that high-margin hard magnetics processing enterprises long, strong bargaining power will gradually degenerate.

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Japanese investment in rare earth refinery in Jamaica will be put into operation

Details: Category: Rare Earth News; Published on Thursday, 18 July 2013 13:58; Written by HJF; Hits: 1913

Teeth media reports, Jamaica technology, energy and minerals minister Powell said, Nippon Light Metal Company invested 300 million teeth tooth Andrew Yuan (about $ 3,000,000) from bauxite refining building rare earth plant has now completed more than 95% factories also have all the necessary equipment imports in place.

Plant is completed, the Japanese company will extract bauxite REE. The ultimate goal is an annual plant extract 1,500 metric tons of rare earths. All plant operating costs will be Japanese company. In January this year, according to media reports teeth, Nippon Light Metal Company in Jamaica bauxite (clay) sediments found in high concentrations of rare earths.

Powell said, I believe this is a successful demonstration project. In fact, we will soon start the factory with Japanese companies operating in the commercial negotiations. Currently, all rare earth production demonstration plant jointly owned by the two sides.

Jamaica Bauxite Institute and Nippon Light Metal Company in September 2012 signing of the Memorandum of demonstration projects.

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National Rare Earth Catalyst Conference held in Lanzhou

Details: Category: Rare Earth News; Published on Thursday, 18 July 2013 14:00; Written by HJF; Hits: 1897

July 17th, 19th National Conference of rare earth catalytic held in Lanzhou. During the meeting, exhibition, including "New Rare Earth Catalytic Materials Preparation and Characterization", "rare earth catalytic reaction mechanism", "rare earth catalytic and environmental protection", "rare earth catalytic petroleum fine chemical", "rare earth catalytic and new energy," etc. latest results and progress.

Catalyzed by the Chinese Society of Rare Earths commissioned the meeting by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Institute of Chemical Physics Oxo Synthesis and Selective Oxidation State Key Laboratory for contractors. The experts will discuss the rare earth catalytic facing opportunities, challenges and direction of development, is committed to promoting communication between academia and industry in order to promote China's rare earth catalytic technology development and related fields.

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Rare earth prices stabilized stabilized markedly remediation

Details: Category: Rare Earth News; Published on Wednesday, 17 July 2013 15:55; Written by HJF; Hits: 1805

With Ganzhou region to combat the "black earth" action in depth, rare earth prices gradually stabilized stabilized in recent days, rare earth prices rose across the board, especially in the heavy rare earth prices rose nearly 20%. The industry believes that rare earth prices or maintained at a higher position, but subject to the constraints of the downstream demand cool, rare earth prices continue to rise or difficult to get out of the stock market.

Public information display, in mid-June, is considered to be rare in Luancai cause worsening water pollution Xunwu County in Jiangxi Province, the public security departments launched a massive campaign illegal mining report. Number of business-related persons have been arrested on suspicion of illegal operation, illegal enterprises were ordered to stop.

Recently, rare earth prices began to rise gradually. On the one hand, the relevant departments to combat rare earth mine makes a lot of private private mining enterprises were shut down, the market is relatively small earth; among traders on the other hand is a lot of opportunity sellers, driving up the price of rare earth.

Heavy rare earth prices also led to the rise in the northern light rare earth oxide, praseodymium neodymium quoted in the beginning of June this year, 240,000 yuan per ton, the current market price of 29 million yuan, or more than 10%.

Rare earth prices in 2011 reached the most boom, then prices tumbled all the way, the price of each variety has fallen by almost two-thirds. Neodymium oxide, praseodymium prices from a high of 1.4 million yuan per ton all the way down to 24 million.

According to reports, despite the corporate inventory of rare earth materials is very low, but not very strong willingness restocking general orders are received, they go to buy rare earth materials.

See now is that rare earth prices rise, but the price is still relatively rare earth ore stable, indicating that rare earth prices rose more reason Ganzhou Rare Earth After the renovation, the short term market supply shortage caused by the downstream demand has not significantly improved.

Analysis of the industry, if the state for the rare earth remediation efforts have been strengthened, the future price of rare earth or can be maintained at a high level, but the rare earth prices could be reversed, and more depending on whether there is improvement in downstream demand.

GF Securities recently released report shows that rare earth prices bottomed Nearly nine years after the fall has begun to rebound; downstream demand is bottoming out, the emerging demand steadily; continue to focus on the core if the future policy against illegal rare earth and large group integration, the rare earth full restoration of rising prices is a high probability event.

Many in the industry have suggested that the integration has been closed in order to avoid illegal project site relocation of production, effectively curb illegal poaching of rare earth resources, Pirates of the transportation incidents, legislation to expedite the development of rare earth, rare earth as an important strategic resource that needs to highlight its due prominence, rose to national strategic level. Secondly, the practical implementation of inter-provincial joint regulatory measures to further implement the joint monitoring mechanism of rare earth region, improve the communications system. Finally, the proposed development of rare earth industry to support countries to develop specific policies, including capital, technology, personnel and other aspects. On the rare earth deep processing industry in technological innovation, environmental protection and enhancement, research and development, personnel training, etc. to give tilt, rare earth enterprises to guide the healthy development of legal compliance.

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