Rare earth prices only short-term trading opportunities

Announced last week the world's major economies, June PMI final value overall better than expected, boosted metal prices rebounded; Friday U.S. non-farm payrolls data released in June sharply than expected, the market ahead of the Fed to reduce the scale of warming concerns stimulate basic metals fell across the board, swallowed week's gains.

LME3 month last week, copper prices rose 0.6%, Al / Pb / Zn / Ni / Sn prices fell 0.3% / 1.0% / 0.8% / 3.0% / 4.2%. Last week, the international spot gold closed at $ 1,223.2 / oz, the week down 0.9% last week, major gold ETF holdings fell 7.51 tons. Small metals: yttrium and rare earth carbonate mineral rich Eu ore prices unchanged. Downstream rare earth oxides: praseodymium / neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide / dysprosium / terbium oxide / europium oxide / metal praseodymium neodymium prices rose by 5.6% / 1.9% / 9.7% / 11.3% / 1.4% / 1.3%. We track the rest of the small metal, zircon sand / sponge titanium / titanium ore / antimony / electrolytic cobalt / magnesium / manganese / molybdenum / vanadium pentoxide prices fell by 1.2% / 4.5% / 3.0% / 3.2% / 1.9% / 1.3% / 1.6% / 0.7% / 5.7% germanium metal prices rose 0.8%, the rest to keep prices unchanged.

RE: RE upstream of the recent consolidation, discontinued, some rare earth prices rebound. Baotou Steel Rare Earth dilute election announcement last week plant shutdown, supply and consumption of inventory to promote the return of intentions clear, rare earth prices continue to rise. However, because of the heavy volume of overseas rare earth downstream demand instability, high inventory three factors, is expected to rebound in the second rare earth prices is difficult to have a big increase, is expected to less than 25%. NdFeB: Last week Sintered NdFeB N35 rough prices at 137 yuan / kg, NdFeB industry is currently off-season, the market trading downturn, no signs of improvement in the short term. Tungsten: Last week the price of tungsten concentrates the footsteps stopped rising continuously maintain high stage 154,000 yuan / ton. Last week, Minmetals, tungsten Tungsten Market Association has issued guidance, CMN July wolframite 65% offer for 155,000 yuan / standard tons, scheelite 65% offer for 154,000 yuan / standard tons, and June offer the same. ITIA July wolframite, APT and guided tungsten powder particles were 155,000 yuan / standard tons, 230,000 yuan / ton, 350 yuan / kg. Were up 20,000 yuan / standard tons, 23,000 yuan / S ton, 30 yuan / kg. Germanium: Last week, a record high of 99.99% germanium continue to 126,000 yuan / ton, based on the industry's major companies control production, to promote recognition of germanium price value return, we expect the price will continue germanium hit a new high. Zirconium: The domestic market is still weak steady state based, although outlook zircon sand prices upward potential, but considering the sluggish downstream demand is still weak, zirconium products no small upward price pressure. Lithium: Domestic 99.5% last week remained at 43.0 yuan lithium carbonate / kg, we are optimistic about the logic of the lithium industry is still the salt lake, mining lithium capacity release under less than expected prices.

Last week, the nonferrous metals industry index (SWS) weekly gain of 4.01%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index 2.82 percent in the SW 23 an industry index rose ranking # 8. Three colored stocks rose last week were Minmetals Rare Earth / Rising colored / Luo zinc power, gains were 21.17% / 19.39% / 18.86%. Last week, stocks were down three colored Shandong Gold / Fine Arts shares / * ST Zhuzhou Smelter, decreases of 26.06% / 4.99% / 3.08%. Tesla Motors last week, U.S. stocks closed at $ 120.09, the week up 11.9 percent, a new record.

View: colored plates fell in June for a month after the end of a rebound last week, in which the rare earths and lithium resources, led by small metal species or front, as rare corporate performance fell significantly, the lack of long-term support price, we believe that the Rare earth prices second only short-term trading opportunities. Still maintain medium-term strategy report views, magnetics and lithium resource sector but also have long-term investment value.

Most magnetic performance of the company in 2013 began to positive or slightly lower year on year, a clear path to future growth, mainstream companies have been valued at 20 times; lithium resources sector in the upstream supply orderly, steady downstream demand growth scenario, with growth to digest the valuation, the proposed focus of these two dominant sector companies, such as Zhong Ke San Huan (unrated), Ningbo Yunsheng (unrated), Tianqi Lithium Industries (unrated), Jiang motor (unrated). In addition, in the dawn of the mid-year report, proposes a focus on the higher part of the performance increase certainty varieties, such as Hailiang shares (holdings), Liyuan Aluminum (overweight), Yunnan germanium industry (buying), East zirconium industry ( holdings) and so on.

Risk Warning: Rare earth prices continue to fall sharply; downstream recovery than expected.


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