Land and Resources Information Center: 2015 Global Mining Outlook

2014, the world economy and the global mining industry continues to be in depth adjustment. In addition to individual countries, the majority of the country's economic growth lower than expected. Benefit from the energy and mineral prices, the developed economies gradually bottomed out, but the speed of recovery varies. Developing economies overall growth slowed by the worsening geopolitical influence and commodity prices fell sharply, some important mineral resources in the country into a serious economic crisis. To curb the economic downturn, many countries have begun sweeping reforms through changes in the law, adjusting mining policy, efforts to improve the investment environment. 2015 as the world economy to accelerate recovery, minerals oversupply situation will be improved, the mining capital market will be improved.

1. differentiation trend in developed economies, emerging economies face downward pressure on the economy

Since 2014, the world's developed economies differentiation trend, the strong US economic recovery, the Japanese economy continued to decline, the euro zone economic recovery is slow. Although the first quarter US GDP fell 2.1%, but in the second quarter, a substantial increase in the third quarter, the number of new jobs in the United States in December hit a new high this century, in which the energy and mining 4.9 million new jobs. From a historical comparison, the US economy is currently in a 10-year cycle of prosperity. US economic trends and the difference is that the Japanese economy in the second quarter, three consecutive quarters of negative growth, respectively -7.1% and -1.9%. Eurozone economic growth has been achieved five consecutive quarters, reversing the previous years, declining economic trend. 2014 third quarter, the UK economic growth of 2.6% for the seventh consecutive quarter of growth.

By rising labor costs, reducing the impact of foreign investment and exports less competitive and other factors, China, Brazil, Russia and Peru and other developing economies, growth is slowing, the economy is facing downward pressure.

October 2014, International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook report in the 2014 world economic growth down to 3.3% from 3.4% in 2015, down from 4% to 3.8%. Since 2011, IMF had nine times lower world economic growth, which in 2014 there were three. IMF forecast 2015 US and China's economic growth was 2.2%, 7.1%, the euro area and Japan's economic growth rate was 1.3% and 0.8%, lower than the previous forecast of 1.5% and 1.0%. IMF warned the euro zone, the developing economies face downside risks.

2. Mineral Exploration and Development put down new discoveries and for the development and utilization of mineral deficiency reserve

Following the 2013 dropped 39% after the 2014 junior exploration company's exploration budget continues to decline. According to SNL metals and mining company exploration strategy released study shows that in 2014 the global non-ferrous metals (including precious metals, base metals, diamonds, uranium, and some industrial minerals, but does not include iron ore, aluminum, coal, oil and gas) exploration budget estimated at $ 11.36 billion, down 25% compared with 2013's $ 15.2 billion. Junior exploration company exploration budgets of the world's non-ferrous metal exploration budget declined from 55 percent in 2007 to 32%. Brownfield exploration investment surpassed the grassroots exploration, which hit a record low.

In addition to the platinum group metals, almost all mineral exploration investment budgets have declined. Gold exploration investment budget accounts for the highest proportion, 43%, but the budget continued to decline in the second year, to $ 4.57 billion, a decline of 37 percent, the proportion fell to its lowest level since 2009. Despite the decline in the proportion of gold, base metals rose by 2 percent share, but exploration investment fell by $ 1 billion.

Although the reduction in mineral exploration investment, but the results were significant investment made in previous years are still apparent. Mainly in the periphery of the old mine, deepwater oil and gas, minerals and other new energy and new materials. For example, the Chilean Copper Leigh Aars Condi up after more than 30 meters of perimeter drilling, resource volume has increased by 28%, the current sulphide ore resources of 18 billion t, copper grade of 0.55%; oxide ore resource of 220 million t, grade of 0.72%. 83 oil and gas discoveries made in 2014 in Brazil, there are 42 from the sea, most of them under salt deepwater oil fields. Barama graphite mine in Mozambique continues to expand the scale and further established its position in the world, one of the country's largest graphite resources. In addition, Paraguay Pili Di (Pirity) oil and gas fields, Botswana Wei Jorda (Werda) iron ore, copper dragon China, Ecuador Cascavel (Cascabel) copper, Mongolia Hamagetai (Kharmagtai) Copper , Kitgum Uganda - Pader (Kitgum-Pader) copper-nickel mine, Serbia Di Moke (Timok) copper, Ethiopia Adelaide Abel (Adyabo) copper and gold mine, WA MacKay Lake potash ore exploration has also made important progress.

Because mineral prices, mining company profits fell in the past that have been relying on the expansion of the business model unsustainable. Under the influence of rising operating and investment costs, declining ore grades, minerals demand instability, investors are dissatisfied with other factors, a large mining company to maintain a certain level of profits, must stop a large-scale expansion. So, in the past year, a large mining company has been divesting non-core assets, reducing investment projects.

Even compared with the financial crisis, the current project development investment remains low. Australia's mining industry warned that the current crisis will have a serious impact exploration of the country's future mining competitiveness. A large copper-gold discovery to production from the minimum required number of years, up to 20 years long. Therefore, if the global exploration and development continued to show a depressed state, is bound to affect 5 to 10 years, even after 20 mineral supply.

3. mineral prices plummeted after the rebound, sharp shock is inevitable

2014, except for a few minerals, most commodity prices fall, especially in the second half, oil, gold, iron ore and other minerals plummeted. Commodity prices plummeted, leading to Russia, Venezuela and other over-reliance on mineral exports of the country's economic decline, commodity supply shortages and serious inflation.

2014, Brazil's position as the largest iron ore exports are replaced soybeans. 2013 Brazilian iron ore exports increased by 4%, but by 2014, 11 months, although the Brazilian iron ore exports grew by 7%, but exports declined by 20%; exports fell all the way down so that the Brazilian economy, 2013 had reached 3.3 percent in the second quarter, but in 2014 only 1.9 percent in the second quarter. 2014 Chile's mineral exports to $ 41.9 billion, down 4.6% compared with 2013, of which $ 38.7 billion of copper exports, fell 3.5 percent compared with last year. Affected by the mining downturn, Peru economic downturn, GDP growth in the second quarter of 2014 fell to its lowest level in five years, only 1.7%.

In the oil prices continued to fall and Western sanctions successive double pressure, the ruble against the dollar all the way down. 2014, the ruble fell 41 percent against the dollar, resulting in the Russian economy suffered heavy losses, the third quarter 2014, Russia's GDP growth fell to 0.7%. Oil prices slump makes Venezuela's economy is facing a serious crisis, three quarters of 2014, economic growth was -4.8% - 4.9% and -2.3%, the annual inflation rate will reach 64%. More than 90 percent of the country's foreign exchange from oil exports, a large number of domestic dependence on imports of basic commodities. Due to shortage of foreign exchange, Venezuela is facing a severe shortage of domestic supplies, rising prices situation. Even after a wave of sharp decline in 2014, but oil, gold, iron ore and other commodity prices, compared with 10 years ago, is still at a relatively high level, there is still some room to fall. International commodity prices in 2015 will be severe shock, if the United States to raise interest rates, the dollar, not exclude the possibility of further decline, but overall, the possibility of sharp decline is unlikely, it is possible to build in the second quarter or second half end rally.

The expected recovery in the global mining capital markets, mergers and acquisitions will pick up mining companies

In recent years, the mining giant to stop a rapid pace of expansion, replacing spin and divestitures. In 2001, the Australian company BHP Billiton merger with South Africa, namely BHP Billiton. August 2014, BHP Billiton announced split into core and non-core business operations. The core business of iron ore, oil and gas, copper and coal, non-core business of nickel, manganese, aluminum, silver, lead and zinc. BHP Billiton split is intended to reduce costs, maintain operating margins. October 2014, Rio Tinto price of $ 50 million of the Mozambique coal assets transferred. These assets are Rio Tinto in 2011 to A $ 4 billion acquisition of Riversdale Mining Company and acquired the company in 2013 for impairment of assets mainly due to $ 14 billion, had purchased the mine is mainly because the actual inadequate understanding of the situation, hastily acquired a significant loss to the company. Compared with large companies, small-scale mining companies operating more difficult. Because no one is interested in the hands of the mining project, no operating income, many mining companies were forced to wait for acquisitions.

Since 2012, due to the impact of falling commodity prices, declining profits and capital operation difficulties and other factors, making the global mining industry downturn mergers and acquisitions continued to show a downward trend. In the past year, the global real economy and the virtual economy deviates from improved US stock market and strong economic recovery occur simultaneously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index in 2014 increased by more than 7%, the Nasdaq has risen 13.4% . China's stock market in mild economic growth rebounded sharply, out since 2010 downturn trend.

Since 2001, changes in the global mining M & A trend, approximately every five years for a cycle. The current global mining mergers and acquisitions are at five-year cycle trough. In addition, the experience of recent years continue to adjust, mining company's share price at a very low price. Therefore, the future as the global economic recovery, increasing demand for minerals, commodity prices rise, mining companies profit growth, mergers and acquisitions among mining companies will gradually rise.

5. bulk minerals surplus eased, emerging mineral supply capacity enhancement

On the one hand is China's crude steel production and iron ore demand slowdown, while on the other hand, the international iron ore demand due to the company's expectations are too high, a few years ago invested heavily in building the capacity of the iron mines continue to release on the market caused a lot of pressure, so that iron ore prices have plummeted. 2015 With the United States and other developed economies to accelerate recovery, China and other developing countries to increase infrastructure construction, steel and cement and other building materials increased demand for iron ore surplus situation will be improved compared with 2014. The author believes that China's steel demand there is room for growth, Japan, South Korea's per capita steel consumption in excess of China, our urbanization and modernization process is still ongoing.

The main non-ferrous metals, with the number of new mines and expansion into operation, the copper supply may be an oversupply situation. But long term, due to the Chuquicamata copper mine have been transferred to other large-scale underground mining, the international copper market will still be a shortage of supply. Due to lack of a large old mines closed and available projects, with the auto industry brought prosperity and low oil prices, lead and zinc will be a shortage situation. By 2015, China abolished the quota system of rare earth, plus Australia, Brazil and other countries of the rare earth project is completed, the rise of global rare earths supply capacity. Chile's lithium industry committee has been established, Bolivia also increased the development and industrial production of lithium, other countries have begun to pay attention to lithium exploration, development and production. Mozambique, Australia, Tanzania and other countries of graphite project began construction of the world's graphite supply will increase significantly in the future.

6. important mineral resources in the country to improve the investment environment and enhance the competitiveness of the mining

To curb the economic downturn and improve the competitiveness of mining, many countries have begun sweeping energy and mining sector reform, through changes in the law, adjusting mining policy to accelerate the approval process, improve the investment environment. Currently, resource nationalism is no longer the biggest risk facing the mining company. More countries adopt economic rather than administrative measures to reflect the national interest.

Reduction of import and export duties and other taxes or fixed rates, often become an important means to encourage mining investment. Board of Investment of the Philippines issued "2014 Investment Priority Plan" mining industry will enjoy preferential duty-free imports of capital equipment. The new law exempts Algeria mine exploration and mining activities, capital equipment and materials such as customs duties and VAT, all the provisions of the Act and related taxes starting from January 1, 2015 to take effect. Cuba's new foreign investment law provides for income tax cut from 30% to 15%, new entrants are eligible for foreign tax exemption for eight years and so on.

Australian Federal Senate tax bill by removing carbon to reduce the burden the industry and consumers, to help the Australian government's economic transformation after successfully deal with the mining era. Australian Federal Senate also approved the abolition of the controversial 30% of the mineral resources rent tax. Indonesia plans to have the construction of the smelter planned mining companies concentrate export taxes were reduced. Peru plans to introduce fixed-ore mining project investment tax contracts worth more than $ 500 million, and to keep rates unchanged for 15 years.

Russia plans within three years to gradually reduce the export duty for crude oil and petroleum products. In addition, in response to the deterioration of relations with the West brought a serious economic crisis, Russia plans to vigorously develop mineral resources in the Far East, the government will give new development projects do not impose pre-mining profit tax concessions for five years, the next five years only 10% levy. Minerals processing and property taxes are lowered, reducing customs and construction approval, on the Kamchatka Krai new mining projects also give some subsidies. Simplify the approval process and reduce administrative procedures to shorten the processing time and increase the degree of information handling procedures will help to break the mining project approval of administrative barriers and attract more foreign investment.

Peru introduced a series of reform measures carried out against the bureaucracy, including speeding up the approval of investment projects, etc., from July 14 began in Peru exploration and development of medium-sized mining companies to submit the EIA report directly through the Internet. The Philippines plans to amend the Mining Act, the House of Representatives has drafted the proposal for approval to shorten the period of mining permits.

By 2015 the US National Defense Authorization Act, which includes mining land swap provision allowing mining companies to own land exchange federal lands, which will help promote the development Lei Suolu Shen (Resolution) and Pangpujin Huo Luo(PumpkinHollow) and other mining projects. Only copper resources of these two projects will reach a total of 40 million t. Currently, the United States there are about 1 million acres of federal land for wildlife protected areas, prohibiting certain mining and other development activities. 7 Mining adjustment promote industrial upgrading and economic restructuring driven by changes in consumption of mineral mining super-boom ever since the new century makes dozens of minerals rely on exports to support economic development in the country to earn a bowl full of pots of abundance, but repeatedly breaking the previous record of prices are enabling the country to rely on imports of mineral severe economic crisis. However, the passage of time, the development of new energy technology breakthroughs have allowed a substantial increase in global oil supply, at the same time, the mining investment boom has brought a lot of excess supply of minerals, energy and mineral prices make exports fell important mineral resources in the country, the economic downturn .

Overall, commodity prices return to the rational contribute to sustainable development of the global economic recovery and mining. But this round of adjustment forcing important mineral resources mining countries Russia, Venezuela to seek new economic development, is heavily dependent on exports of mineral resources at great risk. These countries have been or are being energy, mining reform or regulatory policy adjustments might be able to help them as soon as possible out of the economic crisis. The developed economies of the earliest economic crisis, but also the first to recover from the recession. At present, although developing economies face difficulties, but because of the economic recovery in developed economies, growth in consumer demand, it will lead to a return to growth in developing economies. From mineral exploration and development investments, commodity prices decline, the mining company mergers and acquisitions, the market value of mining companies and many other indicators, the industrial chain targeting global mining consolidation adjustment is nearing completion, will enter a new development cycle.

Future performance of the global mining competition not only competition for resources, will be on show for the whole industry chain, more and more countries attach importance to the development of processing and manufacturing of raw materials, especially labor-rich Africa and Southeast Asia. China's economy has entered a new norm, will gradually bid farewell to the era of rapid growth over the last two digits, but the quality of economic growth will continue to increase, the trend is more robust, a greater contribution to the world economy. China is currently in the economies in transition, facing economic downturn, rising labor costs, increased competitive pressures and other external challenges. Promote development, in order to stimulate the vitality of the market decentralization, in line with the development trend of the world, has also been emulated by more and more countries.

According to the German economist Mixieaier MacDonald study, there are currently more than 40 countries in the world rely on China's economic development, the share of exports to China in these countries more than 15% of its total exports. Sierra Leone, which was 82.1%, 68.8% Turkmenistan, Mauritania was 48.7%, 48.1% Republic of the Congo, Myanmar, 41.4%, 36.2% in Australia, Laos 35.2%. Exports of these countries, most of the energy and minerals.

The future, as the "Silk Road economic belt" and "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" construction, China's economic radiation power and influence will be further enhanced.


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