Third, the price of supply and demand

Hykawy rare earth market for future growth positive attitude, but he felt for only $ 8.19 billion of the market, on the rare earth market forecast in 2018 may not be too optimistic, especially given the irreplaceable factor of rare earth. "People should not forget that some industries will not use more than a certain price-cost materials" Hykawy said. "Rare earth magnets in the application may be irreplaceable, but technology is not the technology is likely to be replaced."

Hykawy give a more acute example, in China, because it is easy to obtain rare earth materials, so rare earths are used in electrical appliances, such as a refrigerator, this motor is very small, with very little power, performance will be very good, while in other parts of the world, energy is more common, the use of the electromagnetic motor of the refrigerator, although this increases the motor power of the motor is greater than the rare earth, but also because of the lack of a solution of rare earth substitutability.

In some light industry, some companies in order to meet the price and reducing the use of rare earth rare earth, such as the lighting industry, the future, because of the rare earth supply Toyota Rav4 type even abandon the use of steam on the power of rare earth-containing transfusion systems. "The price is really limited, demand, supply is growing, it will maintain a balance, but if the price rose to a certain point, demand will drop.

Fourth, opportunities abroad RE projects

At present, in addition to molybdenum companies outside China and Rainer company, there are three rare items of concern, one is RER project, is a mining company Qwest rare items, one is Arab Faron project in Australia, of course, in order to ensure China's rare earth supply outside, these companies still have a long way to go!

Fifth, what's next?

Although rare earth prices, but China's production has not decreased, while the price of rare earth even picked up, it is difficult to return to 2010 and 2011 levels.

In addition, he hopes to have more transparency in the industry, a reasonable supply and stable prices to re-expand demand. In addition, he does not agree with the Chinese government on the "heavy rare earth applications around the world must rely on China" argument, because most of the rare earths are not rare, except in southern China, and now in other regions such as South America, America, and even North America has a containing heavy projects to promote rare earth mine. In particular, China's rare earth mine will not always be there, although I do not know China's rare earth mine will use long, which gives all non-rare earth project outside of China a lot of space, by the buyer to decide whether they pay a secure supply of materials .


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Under the influence of a series of policy control, the continued downturn in rare earth prices show signs of stabilizing. Analysts pointed out that, as the industry gradually straighten out the relationship between supply and demand, rare earth prices are expected to come out of the bottom. As this year was the most sluggish non-ferrous metals sub-sector, rare earth plate layout point is slowly opened.

Policy development effort to rationalize the industry supply and demand

With different base and precious metals, rare earth prices was more affected industry supply and demand, the relative weakening of the financial attributes. With the introduction of control policies, had continued to slump down the rare earth prices are expected to stabilize as the supply-demand relationship and gradually out of the bottom.

On the supply side the rare earth industry, the recent introduction of special rectification actions or will have a profound impact. In related news, the Ministry in October issued an "organized campaign against rare illegal acts special action letter" clearly put forward since October 10, 2014 to March 31, 2015, to carry out special operations nationwide strike RE illegal acts . Action will be divided into three phases: October 10 to November 25 for self-examination stage, November 26 to January 31, 2015 for rectification stage in 2015, February 1 to March 31 for acceptance summary stage. This action will jointly investigate rare earth mining, production, distribution companies of illegal mining, illegal trading and processing of minerals, tax evasion charges, billing and other acts of illegal products in different places, to focus on priority areas investigated 2- rare earth according to invoices and reports and other clues three typical cases.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department also recently released the 2015 export quota Metal Industries varieties. Among them, tungsten, molybdenum quota has been canceled. Thus market expectations, higher cancellation policy further in 2015 rare earth export quota of certainty.

On the supply is expected to shrink, while there have been some industry needs to pick up signs. On the one hand, with the external economy recovers, demand for rare earths started to show some signs of recovery. On the other hand, the state purchasing and storage of rare earths has also been expanded. According to media reports, this year's total purchasing and storage still about 10,000 tons of rare earth, which plans Shouchu neodymium oxide, praseodymium 4000 tons, 1200 tons dysprosium oxide, praseodymium, neodymium oxide, 500 tons each, basic maintenance revenue reserves last year. From a price perspective, the reserve price is determined in accordance with the basic six months before the average price of neodymium oxide, praseodymium reserve price than the market price of the floating rate of about 2%, dysprosium oxide reserve price rises than the market price of about for 10%, other varieties are generally higher than the market price. Shouchu direct effect on the demand side, so the history of the purchasing and storage for rare-earth prices are relatively significant boost.

From the latest look at rare earth prices, the severity of the rare earth oxide prices fell last week, 1.04% and 0.64%; heavy rare earth dysprosium, terbium rose 1.77% and 0.97%, respectively, praseodymium, neodymium fell 1.40 percent. Analysts believe that the rare earth industry has undergone significant improvement in the relationship between supply and demand, but by the fourth quarter of influence consumer off-season, short-term rare earth prices are expected to remain at the bottom of the shock trend.

RE plate layout window on the left asymptotic

There is a market statistics show that in the first three quarters of this year, non-ferrous metals sector as a whole rose by about 30 percent. Among them, lithium plate by the impact of new energy vehicles, or up to 80%; ranked second magnetic material gains, up more than 40%; non-ferrous metal plate in the rare earth sector rose to become the smallest sub-sectors. In the recent market fresh scratch "compensatory growth of wind" when many investors attention on the rare earth sector also began to improve. In this regard, analysts pointed out that the short-term rare earth plate depends on whether up or when rare earth prices bottom out, but taking into account the industry boom has bottomed out, so the left side of the layout point of time is expected not far away.

China Merchants Securities (market, interrogation) research report that, taking into account changes in the macro side and microscopic double face, November is still recommended in the "warm winter" in the search for a better risk-benefit ratio of non-ferrous metal varieties. Analysts pointed out that hitting eight ministries rare special action finally entered the implementation stage, "malfeasance Responsibility, normality pressure against tax mobilize local initiative" is the outstanding feature of this special action. According to Rare Earth Forum, expected in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, the rare earth policy and China's rare earth industry will enter a critical period of development, the promising investment opportunities in the rare earth sector "institutional dividend" under. To have the "volume and price go" light rare earth-based, it is recommended layout while continuing to actively choose the relevant subject.

How to determine the outlook for rare earth prices, GF Securities (market, interrogation) research report that the effect of this rare earth smuggling worth the wait. Since 2014, rare earths prices tumbled, there should have been at the bottom. It is worth noting that industry-related management action point in time the end of the shopping season coincides with the rare earth industry, it is expected that the recent rare earth prices are expected to bottom out after the end of treatment action to be related industries, rare earth prices are expected to appear rose significantly. In the specific tracking targets, analysts recommend that investors focus on "Bo Exchange, praseodymium, neodymium electronic disk" and "rich in yttrium-europium mine," the price of the two products, as an important indicator to judge the rare earth market price movements.


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According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, 9,759 tons of rare earth export Tianjin port, an increase of 18.7% over last year (below), worth 600 million yuan, down 15.3%, with an average price of 62,000 yuan per ton, down 28.6 percent.

First, the first three quarters of this year, the main features of Tianjin port exports of rare earths

(A) general trade as the main export mode. The first three quarters of this year, Tianjin Port to the general trade export of rare earth 9,712 tons, an increase of 18.4% over the same period accounted for 99.5 percent of total exports of rare earths in Tianjin Port.

(B) State-owned enterprises as the main export. The first three quarters of this year, state-owned enterprises in Tianjin Port 5434 tons of rare earth exports, increased 21.3 percent, accounting for 55.7 percent over the same period in Tianjin Port's total exports of rare earths.

(C) are mainly exported to Japan and the United States. The first three quarters of this year, exports to Japan of rare earth Tianjin Port 4113 tons, an increase of 88.5%, 4,058 tons of rare earth exports to the US increased 6 percent, both of which together accounted for 83.7 percent over the same period in Tianjin Port of rare earth exports.

Second, the Tianjin Port in the first three quarters of this year, mainly due to exports of rare earths increase in volume and a drop in price

(A) increasing the quota of rare earth export overcapacity led to increase in volume and a drop in price. June 6, under the Ministry of Land and issued "on the issued 2014 annual total rare earth ore mined tungsten ore control targets," which will continue to implement the total rare earth ore and tungsten ore control index management. "Notice" that in 2014 the total amount of rare earth ore mining index was 10.5 million tons, including rock type (light) rare earth ore index increase was 11,200 tons, an increase of about 15 percent over the previous year; the total amount of tungsten ore mining control indicator 8.9 tons. 2014 is no longer issued antimony ore mining total control targets; the implementation of comprehensive utilization index tungsten ore index plus the approved assessment, appropriate to relax constraints. And continue to implement the rare earth mine tungsten ore mining rights to suspend the policy to June 30, 2015. Key projects for the State Department and the Central Fund or the provincial geological special fund projects to develop integrated projects, resource depletion area, the Department of Provincial agreement, mining and resource depletion remote connection, the central poverty reduction support program, the provincial government requires support for programs and projects to support large rare earth enterprises restructuring projects, in line with the total production control, production capacity balancing requirements, enable the new rare earth mine tungsten ore mining rights. In recent years, the total amount of rare earth mining continues to be controlled, but this year has increased. Yield can promote the export of rare earth companies competing to reduce inventory to save operating costs, resulting in a drop in price of rare earth exports increase in volume and the situation appears.

(B) the disorderly exploitation and international market demand weakened resulting in low rare earth export prices. A wide range of policy stimulus situation in hand, under the quota policy to stimulate the formation of disordered Luancai brought mining spill on the black market to the Chinese rare earth is much greater than the quota standards. On the other hand, is currently more than half the world's proven reserves of heavy rare earths in China, indeed scarce, but its price is falling badly. The reason is that some foreign companies under pressure to come up with alternative materials. There's simply in order to control costs and reduce the use of, for example, US Molycorp now mixed with only half the previous amount of magnetic powder dysprosium, and dysprosium is considered to be one of the most important heavy rare earths. With a lot of research related to technological innovation, but also find a lot of alternative methods, coupled with the use of rare earth though very extensive in the industry, but the amount is not large scale. So, while under the influence of Chinese policy, rare earth prices once soared, triggering panic buying. But the reaction of the market soon, the price began to fall together.

Third, concern

(A) downstream application industries concentrated in the low end, China's rare earth products, lack of core competitiveness. 85 percent of China's rare earth industry is currently used in traditional metallurgy, machinery, petrochemicals, glass, ceramics, etc., only 13% for the high-tech field of new materials, and the highest value-added products in end-use applications, the core technology in almost all of them hands of foreign enterprises. Due to the enormous profit potential of rare earth industry, the United States and Japan and other developed countries, the price of the right to speak in the grip, but also clenched authorize its patented technology of rare earth products, restricting the transfer and development of China's high-end chain. Case in NdFeB NdFeB rare earth belong to high-end materials, application and extensive. NdFeB country has nearly 200 enterprises, the annual output reaches 1000 tons or more than 20, but currently uses only Japanese NdFeB Boeing aircraft. Due to the lack of intellectual property rights, China's only mining, smelting and separation of rare earth primary products, not only low value-added, the bargaining space is small and serious environmental pollution; imported from developed countries after deep processing of primary products, prices and profits to grow geometrically. As domestic enterprises lack the core application technology, so China's rare earth export of rare earth primary products always difficult to break the pattern.

(B) WTO ruled that China's rare earth export quota policy violation, our pricing power to seek long way to go. March 26 this year, WTO ruled that China's rare earth export quota policy violations, despite our appeal, but such appeals are no success stories, the possibility of winning is minimal. In our country there may be six months to a year are forced to modify the export of rare earth industry policy, rare earth export quotas or canceled export tariffs may also be reduced.

In addition, to reduce dependence on China's rare earth supply, the development of alternatives to the pace of foreign research and development of rare earth rare earth mine and significantly accelerated. As Australia's Lynas company in Malaysia to build the world's largest rare earth refinery has been put into production, annual output will meet the global demand for about one-third. Japan and China choose to disclose conflicts in rare problems, but also looking for strategic partners to ensure rare earth supply. In order to maintain the international competitiveness of China's rare earth products, seek international discourse rare, since March, China promulgated a series of policies and measures. For example, Southern Exchange trading of rare earth products and cardiac Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange successive formal operations, standardize the market competition by the two trading platforms, enhanced rare earth product pricing; Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry issued "State of Things and the rare earth industry development grant funds management approach ", will be the rare earth mining regulation, rare earths and other high-end applications to provide financial support. To obtain the export of rare earth pricing power long way to go.

(3) "black chain" is the invasion of China's rare earth industry. The phenomenon of illegal production and sale of rare earth products in the current Chinese rare earth industry is not uncommon, Qingdao, Shenzhen, Customs detected repeatedly in recent years the amount of smuggling of rare earth billion on major. First, some of the shortcomings of rare earth export quota management system still exists, even the quota system has now become one of the "Pushing Hands", it became quota trading business, if it is not enough, people began to "black-mining", the formation of disordered chaos mining situation. Second, the illegal production of rare earth enterprises that difficult, imperfect laws and regulations, enforcement is difficult, between the central and local governments, has not yet formed between sectors and regions reasons for a unified and efficient law enforcement system caused by inadequate crackdown. Third, the smuggling of rare earth profits temptation also make many criminals choose to take the risk, the current production of rare earth ore mine in northern resource tax at 05,000 yuan per ton to 14,000 yuan range, rare earth ore resource tax per ton at 06000 South mine yuan to 36,000 yuan range, resource tax plus other taxes accounted for more than a tonne ore price 50%, private dug illegal mining do not need to pay any taxes, big profit margins. "Black chain" phenomenon is serious not only legitimate businesses to survive, but also to bring a major ecological disaster, how do we go to the balanced policy worth considering.


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With the recent series of good news, the rare earth industry is bottoming out. Currently dysprosium, terbium prices at historically relatively low, combined with the future regulation of the national industrial policy become more severe and growing consumer sector demand, prices become a trend.

Under the influence of a series of policy control, the continued downturn in rare earth prices show signs of stabilizing. Analysts pointed out that, as the industry gradually straighten out the relationship between supply and demand, rare earth prices are expected to come out of the bottom. As this year was the most sluggish non-ferrous metals sub-sector, rare earth plate layout point is slowly opened.

The report notes, rare earth prices are out of the bottom, in the current favorable policy support, while the price of rare earth products all the way up. Data show that since the third quarter of praseodymium neodymium oxide prices have risen, or about 2.7%, other rare earth raw material prices also have different degrees of increase. Institutional analysis, as dysprosium, terbium excellence in the industry, particularly on the high-tech industry can not be replaced, coupled with the extreme scarcity of resources, the supply is limited, the future of rare earth dysprosium, terbium price is bound to be an effective support to its investment value will change over time goes increasingly prominent.


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