Rijkers has updated his report on Northern Minerals (ASX:NTU) following the recent financing package totalling A$58 million coming from Chinese interests. Rijkers’ view is that Northern Minerals has differentiated itself from other REE explorers by focusing on metallurgical studies in conjunction with exploration programs. The company is expecting first production of mixed rare earths oxides in 2016, dominated by the heavies (yttrium 61.6% and dysprosium 11.6%).

Rijkers is more optimistic than most about the sector – well, at least the HREE end of it. He believes the heavy rare earths will come back into focus in 2013 as global equity markets rally to near all-time highs due to a marked up-tick in economic growth expectations and improved political clarity.

“The REE market is itself very small but enormous downstream markets rely on their input at differing stages of the supply chain. REE demand is driven predominantly by two of the fastest-growing economically sensitive areas: renewable energy and high technology,” he writes.

And, despite the low level of investor interest in the HREE equity sector, the past two years have seen industry participants bolster their efforts to secure supply. These efforts have included:

The U.S. establishing a $120 million REE research institute to development new methods of REE production;
The U.S. passing legislation to boost domestic REE production (especially NdFeB magnets critical to defence applications);
Strategic alliance formed between the U.S. Department of Defence and Ucore Rare Metals for dysprosium;
Japan has invested $1.3 billion in REE recycling programs;
Japan has offered $110 million in subsidies for REE projects that reduce its dependency on China;
The E.U. and U.S. have taken legal action through the W.T.O against alleged protectionist Chinese policy;
South Korea and Japan have invested in REE projects through their respective state-owned investment vehicles; and China has tightened environmental controls, implemented policies to create HREE stockpiles and sanctioned investments internationally in HREE projects.
Yet, as he says, the results so far have been muted.

                        

Rijkers continues: “Despite the volatility experienced in the REE sector, taking prices from historically low levels to astronomic heights and subsequently back to the levels of 2010, there are two divergent themes emerging. The rise in HREEs initially reflected the tight demand/supply of the market but also soared to unsustainable levels as speculators entered the market when Japanese demand collapsed due to the Fukushima disaster. This resulted in consumers cutting back based on price destruction which was compounded by the economic and political risks that took hold of the global economy in 2012.

“However, underlying demand for HREEs remains firm due to the robust growth of the downstream industries that they service and a lack of new HREE sources outside of China. There are no substitution materials or alternative technologies that can replace HREEs’ critical role in their respective supply chains without a material cost being incurred. There is also a seismic shift occurring within the demand picture of HREEs which is dominated by China and historically domestic production has exceeded domestic demand. China announced in 2011 that their HREE reserves are finite (8-12 years) and as their REE requirements shift away from lower value LREE applications towards higher value HREE applications, it is likely that China will become a net importer of HREEs over time.


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During the two meetings, the member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Li Yizhong, Minister of Industry and rare earth is a valuable and scarce mineral resources in the national economy, the defense industry, the state-of-the-art scientific purposes, it is not self-evident. The consolidation of the rare earth industry in China, for resources and environmental protection, some Western countries objection is entirely without justification.

Li Yizhong pointed out that, "eighteen large raised four modernizations simultaneous development, urbanization is on everyone's lips, and the focus of attention. Simply benign interaction with eighteen big words, industrialization and urbanization. Starting industrialization head speaking industrialized prerequisite for urbanization to urbanization create the conditions, laid the foundation. "

Li Yizhong, said rare earth is a valuable, scarce a mineral resources in the national economy, the defense industry, the state-of-the-art scientific purposes, it is not self-evident. China now accounts for about 23% of the world's large reserves, but provides 90 percent of the rare earth, "Comrade Xiaoping once said a word, the Middle East has oil, China has rare earth. Could have been our strengths, but due to various reason, this industry is a lot of confusion, to dig Luancai mining on private. "

Li Yizhong stressed, "We propose the reorganization of the rare earth industry, resource protection, environmental protection, which we should do, does not make sense for some of the objections of the Western countries. Rectify the development of rare earth industry is both a traditional, but also a strategic emerging industries. "

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“We must Rectify the rare earth industry, rectify the excessive and indiscriminate digging of domestic rare earth resources, rectify uncontrolled exploitation of rare earth resources, rectify the various contradictions in the development of the rare earth industry -including mining, smelting, trading and exporting. The Chinese government is duty bound to observe regulation on the sector. China’s restrictions on rare earth production and exports are meant to protect the environment and the resources, for which conduct should be above reproach.” Thus did Li Yizhong say before Chinese media on March 4 and March 6. Li Yizhong is the former minister of China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). He addressed “two summits” in Beijing this week, acting as the vice chairman of the Economic Commission of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). Li was very big on the rectification theme, adding: “Should the rectification of China’s rare earth industries raise objections, especially from some Western countries, these are totally baseless. China will continue to firmly pursue the integration of its rare earth metals industry.”

Obviously, because of the accusations brought against China of breaking WTO rules on rare earth exports, the Mr. Li was not shy to express his annoyance at some Western countries, such as the European Union, the United States and Japan, which launched a rare earth complaint before the  WTO against China almost exactly a year ago.

The diversification of the supply of rare earth elements has gathered a consensus and an acceptance throughout the global market. In spite of facing the rare earth WTO lawsuit, China will continue regulating the sector whether it wins or loses the trade dispute. And why is that, you ask? We must be willing to concede that the Chinese rare earth industry has been, for lack of a better term, rather a bit of a dog’s breakfast in the past few years. The country’s rare earth industry had been harmed by illegal mining, chaotic production and exports. The export quota system helps curb the messy situation softening throat-cutting competition of rare earth exports while offering other producers of non-Chinese rare earths projects a chance to boost their production.

                        

Does this mean China’s export quota system will never be removed? Perhaps, but this is not a bad thing. Due to China’s rare earth metals industry relatively small scale, it features a high concentration rate with numerous businesses. At the same time, it lacks large enterprises with core competitiveness. Self-discipline in the industry is also weak, and vicious competition exists. Moreover, there are many problems that ensued due to a lack of sound legal regulations, therefore, it is difficult to avoid that some less than honorable ‘enterprises’, operating in a way that shows a low sense of responsibility and flagrant disregard for the law will certainly be seduced by the lure of high profits. They start to gamble, foregoing any moral principles in the pursuit of profits. Therefore, the integration of the rare earth industry is essential for China. Only after integrating the currently fragmented industry, will state-owned large enterprises have the sense and ability to control productivity and prices, even without government restriction and supervision. When this is achieved, and only then, China’s export quota system could be lifted.

China is believed to remain firmly integrated within the rare earth metals industry. The central government has set targets to encouraging mergers in rare earth industry sectors to enhance the state-owned large enterprises’ global competitiveness.


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Galileo, the emerging African Rare Earth exploration and development company, is pleased to announce the results of a Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”) of its Glenover Rare Earth Project (“Glenover Project or the Project”) in South Africa.

Economic Highlights:
Net Present Value (“NPV”) of US$ 512 million using a rare earth oxide (REO) basket price 2 of US$60.79 per kg of 99% REO and a discount rate of 8%. (NPVs at different rates are set out below e.g. NPV of US$783 million at a discount rate of 5%).
Internal Rate of Return (“IRR”) of 34.5 % for the Project.
REO production of 167,100 t (tonnes) in mixed high-grade REO chemical product over 24-year life of mine (LOM) on current resource estimate.
Ore production rate from 2.7 Mt stockpiles at 400,000 t per year 1 to 7.
Open-pit-mine ore production from 7.1 Mt at 400,000 t per year from year 8.
Waste to ore mine stripping ratio of 2.1 to 1 from year 8.
Initial capital investment US$233M, including a contingency of US$34M but excluding $57M for deferred and sustaining capital.

                                 


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