Four factors determine the four quarters of heavy rare earth trend is still bullish

According to the monitoring , the recent rare earth prices fell slightly , which is currently the mainstream market price of neodymium oxide 340,000-350,000 yuan / ton, down 5,000 yuan / ton ; dysprosium mainstream price hovering at 1,900-2,100 yuan / kg, and last down 50 yuan / ton. Other rare earth prices are not very good at this week's performance , turnover also relatively light . For October more depressed price of rare earth market , many traders wondering Rare earth prices can usher in the fourth quarter rebound, rare earth market could pick up signs in the winter .

I believe that in the fourth quarter will have four factors determine rare earth prices.

Factor 1 : Ministry of Industry and other ministries jointly against illegal , illegal production of rare earth acts launched a three -month rectification action . In early August the Ministry of Industry on the rare earth industry to be completely overhauled , beginning from August 15 to November 15 to . The rare earth industry consolidation was to become the longest history of rectification. Although rectification action has been the past two months , but the first two months of rare earth prices did not appear significant rally, rally only intermittently , but the turnover is still light . However, consolidation is expected in November after the publication of the results , for the rare earth market have a greater good, rare earth prices will rally is still very possible .

Two factors : Rare purchasing and storage may be before the end of October or cashed . This year the government level rare earth Shouchu news has yet to launch in the first half only Baotou Steel Rare Earth in order to stabilize market prices, through the corporate purchasing and storage in the form of purchasing and storage of small amounts of rare earths. The recent government level Shouchu continue to spread the message , and purchasing and storage amount may be as high as ten billion yuan . This message can be said, whether for large or small rare earth rare earth enterprises traders who are looking forward to an exciting and special . Then start purchasing and storage of rare earth , rare earth shot traders will wait for a higher price , then the price will be a rare rally . According to the Society of Rare Earths experts, purchasing and storage of rare earth fastest possible implementation of this month , the news has not been officially confirmed , but relatively optimistic about the Baotou Rare Earth , Minmetals Rare Earth , the color of shares and Ganzhou Rare Earth Group and other companies have also expressed Shouchu not received notification .

Three factors : the integration program will be introduced by the end of rare earth . Su Bo , vice minister of the Ministry to participate in the Davos Forum in Dalian had revealed that the domestic rare earth industry consolidation is rapidly advancing , is expected before the end of a large group of rare earth integration scheme will be introduced , the rare earth in spring 2014 at the earliest integration carried out . Rare large group promoting China's rare earth industry consolidation is healthy and stable development of the important part is the most difficult part. Integrate opinions from last May has been proposed , progress has been slow , but WTO on China's rare earth export policy litigation ruling at the end will be the results, in order to safeguard China's rare earth industry's healthy development and strategic resource interests , the Ministry is stepping up its launch specific programs , coordination good local businesses and the central rate of interest. Rare large group programs and the introduction of integrated solutions , it will accelerate the construction of China's rare earth industry standards development and healthy development plays an important role . On the adjustment of supply and demand of rare earth market is also important for the long run positive effect of rare earth prices is relatively large.

Four factors : Europe Day for Chinese rare earth export policy decisions will be by the end of the WTO litigation results . Domestic rare earth industry experts generally believe that our winning percentage is very small in the proceedings , if the lawsuit fails, our country's rare earth export quota policy and the tax rate will be modified or even canceled , which for the development of China's rare earth industry is extremely unfavorable . To deal with this situation, the Government is actively promoting China's rare earth industry standard operation , I believe that was the end of the recent addition to the Ministry of Industry to accelerate the integration of rare earth industry , will also introduce other relevant norms and promoting policies . This long-term development of the market for rare earths is also beneficial .

However, rare earth prices continued to decline and the resulting downturn reasons or lack of demand , overcapacity and other rare earth market . Short-term oversupply of rare earth market is difficult to change , but it is difficult to balance the number of purchasing and storage of this pattern, so the short-term price trend is still rare earth policy level messages about the long term development of rare earth industry or regulate , control and supply of rare earth production capacity , thereby ensuring the rare earth prices at a reasonable location, maintenance companies and the national interest.


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