Taking into account the introduction of real estate on March 1 the five countries "Conditions could dampen investor confidence, the HSBC China manufacturing PMI in February fell to a four-month low, we lowered the rating to" hold "of the nonferrous metals industry. Base metals and precious metals no significant opportunities, industry Aspect is still rare earth policy tightening is expected, as well as energy saving benefit. We recommend investors configure the sub-sectors of rare earth (Guang Sheng colored, * ST Guanlu, Baotou Steel Rare Earth, Xiamen Tungsten) and energy conservation benefit shares (the western materials, Yi balls resources, Grammy).

1.Base metals: real estate regulation affecting demand 
To replenish stocks ahead of the end of the Fed easing, and regulation of real estate concerns to China again, after the Spring Festival, basic metals downstream enterprises is not the same as in previous years, a large number of procurement but to demand the main base metals consecutive weeks crash. Taking into account the HSBC China manufacturing PMI in February fell to 4 month low on Friday introduced the five countries "Conditions could dampen investor confidence, we recommend a short-term reduction with base metals.

2.Precious Metals: The dollar index Refresh six month high 
The dollar index continued to rise, and refresh the six month highs this week, gold and silver fell by -0.25% and -0.40% respectively. Gold ETF SPDR Gold institutional investors are still underweight gold positions dropped to a seven-month low of 1,254 tons in February 28 Kusakabe. We believe that precious metals there is no obvious short-term opportunities. 

3.Small metal: looking forward to the rare earth policies favorable landing 
Maintain rare earth sub-sectors "buy" rating. Although the week this week, light rare earth oxides price fell by 1.99%, 0.36% heavy rare earth oxide prices (praseodymium, neodymium prices edged up 2%, up 5% dysprosium, lanthanum and cerium prices fell by nearly 10% and 8% ). March 5 upcoming two sessions, we believe that favorable policies may exceed expected, as detailed in the report, "the heavy rare earth undervalued, dividend policy will continue. Proposed to continue to focus on: * ST Guanlu Rising colored, Baotou Steel Rare Earth. The tungsten areas: tungsten concentrate prices rose slightly to 1,000 yuan, but the downstream products not follow up. Lithium carbonate prices steady, but Tian Qi Li Tai Lisen shareholders overwhelmingly approved benefit due to the acquisition of the Group has been. Is expected that the acquisition the Tai Lisen to thickening of the company in 2013 EPS to 0.83 yuan.

4.New materials: energy saving core benefit 
China and more fog and haze makes energy conservation a hot market, new material part of the company is expected to benefit. Including western material (titanium clad steel plate used for flue gas desulfurization); recycled metal the subject: Grammy Yi ball resources. This week the NdFeB H35 Price cost ratio fell from 0.98 to 0.96, the cost of processing enterprises to further increase the pressure.

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China's export of rare earth minerals remains sluggish due to declining demand.

In January, the country shipped 1,092 tonnes of the minerals which was 38% less than in 2012 during the same month, according to government data.

Other exported rare earth processed products totalled 2,866 tonnes, down 22% year-on-year. Traditional processed products accounted for 5,112 tonnes.

Chinese authorities said they will allow exports of 15,499 tonnes of rare earth resources in the first six months of this year. Additionally, they plan to stabilize the country's rare earths export policy during 2013.

As a result of these restrictions, China's export volume is likely to follow a downward trend.

State-owned rare earth producers will not adopt a price-cutting policy so the amount of legal exports will be reduced.

Government officials said the export quota policy could not be lifted as they would not provide a sustainable and viable climate for the country's rare earth industry.

                              


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China is rich in rare earth resources, which account for 23% of the world and supply with more than 90% to it. China has made a great contribution in this regard. However, it brings a series of problems at the same time, such as ruining the resources and polluting the environment, which is not consistent with the scientific concept of development and also, not sustainable.

Li Yizhong, the member of the CPPCC and also the former Minister of Industry and infomationization Department, believed that China is undoubtedly responsible for rectifing the rare earth industry, the abuse and indiscriminate digging of the resources, as well as rectifing the various contradictions in the refinement and usage of rare earth resources. China will continue to firmly integrate the rare earth industry and combine those enterprises of over-abundance, scatter, tiny and indiscrimination into the backbone of the rare earth industry by elimination of outdated, reorganization and merger, which is in line with the practice of the economic laws.


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"Rare earth prices fall too low, and the development of the industry is extremely unfavorable. Member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Central Iron and Steel Research Institute deputy chief engineer Li Wei in an interview with reporters, issued such a feeling. He hoped to be able to cause the relevant state departments to attach importance to prevent rare earth prices spike.
    
"The so-called rice farm prices are low, this sentence applies equally in the rare earth industry," Li Wei pointed out that the application of rare earth in the emerging industries of strategic and defense industry, is an important manifestation of its strategic value. I understand that, since adjust from August 2011, China's rare earth prices have continued to adjust about 17 months, a decrease of over 80%, the current price of rare earth has been close to or even below the cost line. This price level is not conducive to the development of the industry is not conducive to the rational development and utilization of valuable rare earth resources.
    
The rare earth industry chain is longer, to the device from the concentrates of rare earth, rare earth salts, rare earth oxides, rare earth new materials, devices, complex products. Moreover, the more downstream more dispersed, each grade the degree of dispersion is increased exponentially, a very broad area of influence and lead the industry.
    
At present, the mainstream of rare earth new materials including magnetic materials, hydrogen storage materials, luminescent materials, catalytic materials and polishing materials, and application areas are strategic and emerging industries of our country.
    
The development of rare earth resources and materials related to the restructuring and upgrading of the structure of China's overall industrial strategy, but also related to the enhancement of national competitiveness. Li Wei pointed out that the soaring rare earth prices will affect the smooth development of the industry, the impact of frequency conversion motor, magnetic resonance imaging and other high-end equipment manufacturing industry, and now the price collapse would affect the sustainable development of the rare earth industry. For this reason, it is recommended that the relevant state departments of this attention, and take effective measures to improve industrial concentration, and other means to strengthen guidance and governance.

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The rare earth market rumors two days have metal manufacturers to raise prices, Rare Earth the traders also reflect rare earth prices rose slightly. It is understood that most of the traders are still waiting to see, yet to raise its offer, most of the rare earth product prices steady.

Traders reflect Baotou lanthanum, cerium oxide prices slightly raised, a small range. Lanthanum oxide, cerium oxide tax price is still 40,000 yuan / ton. The praseodymium oxide market offer slightly improved, the traders offer 350,000 yuan / ton rose to 36-38 million / ton, but high turnover is still less. It is understood that the the metal neodymium manufacturers to raise its offer, years ago included reported 420,000 yuan / ton metal neodymium tax reported 440,000 yuan / ton.

Praseodymium, neodymium, gadolinium iron prices are still strong steady, most hold stocks praseodymium neodymium metal tax reported 40 yuan / ton, still holding goods Handelsblatt 395,000 yuan / ton, excluding tax 33.5-34 million / ton, of gadolinium iron tax 160,000 yuan / ton 14 yuan / ton, not including tax. Neodymium oxide, praseodymium market slightly transaction, the market mainstream tax price of 310,000 yuan / ton, excluding tax 26-26.5 yuan / ton, the industry reflects the neodymium oxide, praseodymium tax 320,000 yuan / ton traded turnover of the price surge. The market price of gadolinium oxide is still steady, stable market supply, market tax 135,000 yuan / ton.

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Japan from April started a new system, recycling small household appliances waste, each local government to actively promote the recycling of rare metals such as. The survey shows that Japan's Ministry of the Environment, the local government plans to introduce such a system only stay in total more than 30% of the level.

Small home appliances, such as mobile phone and computer scrap contains valuable resources such as precious metals and gold, but the recycling work but slow progress. To reverse this situation, a new system will start in April, small household appliances waste that is recovered by local government, and then handed over to the relevant plant extract rare metals and other resources in order to promote recycling work.

Before the start of this system, the Japanese Ministry of Environment in November last year, the country's cities, towns and villages such as objects, which conducted a survey on whether or not to implement this system. Results in the 1701 local government to give a reply, said that the intention of the implementation of the local government is only 575 remain in a total of 33.8% of the low level.

Ministry of the Environment also asked to answer no plans to implement this system, the local government cited reason the plural form of the results, the answer is "garbage collection and processing work conducted jointly by a number of local governments, and therefore need to be adjusted," 45% answered "difficult to implement due to the shortage of manpower and other reasons, "the proportion of 43%; 33% the proportion of the budget difficult to answer. To this end, the Ministry of the Environment, said local governments will provide financial assistance and more local governments will continue to urge the implementation of this new system.

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According to Malaysia on the 28th, Australia Linus announced on the 27th, and has successfully produced the first batch of rare earth finished its rare earth plant in Kuantan, Pahang.

It is learned that the Lynas in November last year, the Malaysian Government's temporary operating permits, the protests of local environmentalists and residents, the rare earth ore shipped from Australia in November last year, arrived in Kuantan.

Lynas in Kuantan construction of the world's largest rare earth refinery covers an area of about 20 hectares, invested 800 million U.S. dollars to build, will produce 22,000 tons of rare earth, able to meet about 1/3 of the world demand, world rare earth trade market structure have a significant impact. China's current world consumption of rare earth exports accounted for 95%.

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The crown of some foreign media that the two sessions held for decades the most important meeting of 2013, the market for the General Assembly to tell the metal market and what impact a variety guess.

First, we briefly recall the history. Opening two sessions in 2012 when the price of copper is at a high level during the meeting only in the range of smaller shocks, but nearly a month later at the end of the meeting Powei down. Rebar prices are also soon in two sessions after started a more substantial decline. 2012 NPC and CPPCC Shanghai Futures Exchange copper prices fell 1.7% Total. During the two sessions held in 2011, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures prices cumulative decline of more than 7%. Only from the results of these two statistical point of view, the two sessions did not seem to be able to the metal to promote the real meaning of good the final market performance was significantly weaker.

For this year's two sessions will be talking about economic policy, the focus of the market is mainly concentrated in the industrial development and monetary policy. Will during the meeting will discuss environmental policies, energy policies, as well as new economic development objectives and the expected level of inflation is generally expected.

Environmental policy and industrial policy in terms of energy, steel and non-ferrous metals industries are high-polluting industries in the traditional sense. Two sessions held in the fog and haze of a large area of ​​North China before the end of the case, one can imagine that will bring the future development of high-polluting enterprises variables. Capacity in general is also a low-cost production capacity due to high pollution, environmental pollution control of the metal industry is very likely to accelerate the rising cost of steel and non-ferrous metal production. But we need to pay attention to the message itself may produce some short-term impact on the market price, but the rise in the cost of production will eventually transfer to the market price will be a very long process.

Compared to the industrial policy, the most direct and guide the metal prices or economic growth targets and the expected level of inflation, as well as financial and monetary policy. The leading bodies of the two sessions will produce the new session of the national institutions, investors for the new policy also prone to more conjecture.

Current message, the vast majority of the predictions are that this year's economic growth target will be around 7.5%, unchanged from 2012. Despite the U.S. economic recovery is becoming more and more determined, the traditional China's largest export objects in Europe is still living in the quagmire, in the case of export is not effectively recover, even if it is to increase the scale of investment in fixed assets, to achieve 7.5% economic growth target is still not easy, so we believe that ultimately the economic growth target will not significantly deviate from this level. The fixed assets investment scale further expansion should undoubtedly meetings, but to expand the magnitude determine the scale of demand for the metal. As the financial pressure faced by the local government, the new government has not yet completed that seek the possibility of substantial expansion of investment in fixed assets is very small in the case of local government financing platform rectification. The final GDP growth target is recognized as about 7.5%, so obviously not achieve a decisive boost to all kinds of metal right now ubiquitous high inventory.

From a monetary policy point of view towards further clarified in the level of inflation, the central bank apparently will not easily change the current cautious attitude. Although the mainstream view is that the earlier Central Economic Work Conference signals given this year's economic development goals "steady partial loose" monetary policy, but in the years since, the central bank accumulated from the open market to return the funds nearly trillion yuan, funds face steadily tightening trend reversed sharply in the short term the possibility is very small, not enough to make the metal market currency environment is a fundamental change.

We believe that the metal market during the two sessions due to the probability of strong policy reasons, investors should not have too high expectations of the "two sessions Quotes. The government policy also is limited by a number of objective conditions, blindly expect massive investment-led economic growth, driven by the rise in commodity prices is likely to be disappointed.

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Research in Japan, said earlier in South Bird Island in the Pacific waters of undersea discovery of a large number of rare earth ore concentration is very high, some element concentration is 30 times higher than China's rare earth mine in southern. Japanese experts also said that these rare earth mine as a high possibility that a large number of mining resources.

Last year, the research team of the University of Tokyo in Japan South Bird Island exclusive economic zone mud found a large number of rare earth ore, last month, the research team once again went to the scene to investigate. The survey found that the rare earth concentrations as high as 5000 meters above sea bottom mud 6000PPM. Dysprosium elements integral concentration which produced environmentally friendly cars 20 rare earth mine in southern China for IT equipment of terbium elements and for LED lighting equipment europium element concentrations are 16 rare earth mine in southern China and 35 times.

Kato Thai ho, professor at the University of Tokyo, said the high concentration of rare earth ore mining high possibility as a resource in the top of the undersea. World and not in the 5000 meters in the ultra-deep sea resource exploitation precedent, METI will future mining technology research.
 

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The monthly Rare Earths MMI® continued its nosedive, dropping three points to register a value of 43 in February, a decrease of 6.5 percent.

What makes this month’s reading interesting, though, has little to do with the headline number and more to do with which metals within the complex led the rout –in particular, yttria, terbium oxide, rare earth carbonate, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, europium oxide and dysprosium oxide.

The other half of the metals within the index actually posted price gains, including neodymium, praseodymium neodymium, and lanthanum oxide, among others. However, neodymium has now also dropped in price, since the monthly MMI reading on Feb. 1.

Rare earth analysts have reported that Chinese rare earth export numbers remain problematic, in that different Chinese sources have published different numbers.

Regardless of which numbers one looks at, rare earth prices have dropped because more supply has and will continue to come on-stream, including from Lynas, who as of this writing may have just cleared its last legal hurdle and will commence operations in Malaysia this month.

Until/unless China itself creates more of its own demand for rare earth metals, Chinese rare earth producers’ net profits will continue to slide. And prices may continue to do the same.

Primary Price Drivers of the Rare Earths Index

Dysprosium oxide prices plummeted 15.1 percent for the month. Terbium oxide prices fell nearly as hard, plunging 12 percent.

The price of neodymium oxide fell 9.4 percent. The europium oxide price was down 2.2 percent for the month.

Meanwhile, the price of yttrium increased a slight 0.3 percent. Prices for lanthanum oxide followed suit, rising 0.3 percent, as did neodymium, terbium metal and cerium oxide.
 

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