Chinese Tungsten Market Forecast in October

Analysis of latest Chinese tungsten market from Chinatungsten Online: Tungsten market in September moves forward tiredly as the price has not picked up as expected. 

Tungsten resources, as an important manufacturing raw material, its entire industry chain would keep going on no matter how tense the raw material is or how weak the demand is. It seems hard to touch the ceiling when the price is picking up and hard to rally when the price is falling.

Tungsten prices fell by more than 10 percent in September amid tungsten concentrate price fell by $1,705 per tone and APT fell by $263 per mtu. There are several reasons for the decline: firstly, after the sharp rise of raw materials, trade risks are hard to release; secondly, some processing enterprises who have stronger discourse power in the tungsten market are hard to make profits when price picks up; finally, market confidence is impacted to a certain extent, thus cautious attitude has become an important factor affecting price decline.

Where is the tungsten market in October heading? Focus on the following issues.

Firstly, the attitude of large enterprises that are in the top in tungsten concentrates production and purchases. Tungsten mines and APT smelters are mainly concentrated in a few large tungsten industry groups, and the relative concentration of resources distribution has given some large enterprises power to affect market price. At present, the long-tem negotiated price from two large tungsten enterprises in Fujian and Jiangxi has a greater impact on the market.

Secondly, supply ability of tungsten mines and smelters as well as the practical demand of processing enterprises and the terminal market. In the first half of 2017, environmental protection inspection has great impact on the operating rate of tungsten mines. Under the tense atmosphere, the actual production of tungsten concentrates declines and the demand in the carbide market increases slightly.

Thirdly, whether the tungsten export market will continue to grow substantially in the rest of the year. In the first half of this year, export of tungsten products sees a historical growth amid a total of 14 thousand tons in June, growing by 40 percent year-on-year. With the recovery of the manufacturing industry in Europe, the United States and other countries, the demand for tungsten products would increase.

Finally, whether there will be favorable policies and other unexpected events? This year's environmental policy has great impact on the tungsten market. In 2016, tungsten market successfully completed three rounds of purchasing and storage, the total amount exceeded 20 thousand tons, which has greatly changed the supply and demand and reduced stocks. As far, it has not happened this year.

Comprehensive analysis: Opening this month, market participants still need to concern about the attitude of large enterprises. In addition, the guidance price from Ganzhou Tungsten Association in October also is important for the market. Tungsten price is weak but tend to be stable, the most important thing in the market is market confidence. Without the support of larger enterprise, tungsten price may hold steady with weak adjustment. Chinatungsten Online suggest being more cautious in operations.

Price of tungsten products on Oct. 9, 2017

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