Gold Price Will Fall, Time to Switch to Specialty Metals?

The U.S. and Europe may have been skirting the edge of financial peril for years, but Christopher Ecclestone, who is the principal and mining strategist of London-based Hallgarten & Co., told The Metals Report that the gold price should drop this year as investors realize that there's no more cause for panic. However, the frank and expressive Ecclestone has plenty of other suggestions for what's "sexy" this year (zinc, copper and specialty metals), even as he rips into "business as usual" gold majors and chastises any management team with the nerve to offer a 0.5% dividend.

Christopher believes that the metal market will recover in 2013. Why is this? He said that We'll have a different type of recovery than we've had in the past, when everything was driven by the financial industry and house price inflation. The U.S. keeps driving along the edge of the cliff like Thelma and Louise, but never actually going over.

I get the feeling that there will inevitably have to be a recuperation. The ducks are in the row now for an industrial recuperation—probably a construction-led one. I'm not talking about a rip-roaring recovery, but there is such a delicate balance in base metals between supply and demand that it doesn't take much recovery to vacuum up lingering stocks and tip the markets back into a deficit situation again.

Christopher Ecclestone is a principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Co. in New York. He is also a director of Mediterranean Resources, a gold mining company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, with properties in Turkey. Prior to founding Hallgarten in 2003, he was the head of research at an economic think tank in New Jersey. Before moving to the U.S., he was the founder and head of research at the esteemed Argentine equity research firm Buenos Aires Trust Co. from 1991 until 2001. Prior to his arrival in Argentina, he worked in London beginning in 1985 as a corporate finance and equities analyst and as a freelance consultant on the restructuring of the securities industry. He graduated in 1981 from the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology.


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