Over the weekend there’s been some rather breathless speculation about how a gold bar has been found, one that has been drilled out and filled with tungsten. Given that I’m actually in the metals trade, albeit not bullion or tungsten (I have handled both but they’re not my specialty) I thought I’d have a closer look.

And there’s two parts to the first mainstream report.

Firstly, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone has attempted to do the substitution. It’s been known for a long time that the densities of tungsten and gold are close enough that in theory, drilling out a hallmarked gold bar and replacing the interior with tungsten could fool all but the most sophisticated of tests.

You can see the purported photos of the bar that has been found here. Following the story around the claim is made by ABC Bullion that a Swiss refiner (and producer of good delivery bars to the London gold market) MKS had sent out the warning email last week. Which, at least as of lunchtime today was something of a surprise to MKS as when I spoke to them they had no idea about it all. There were quite a lot of people like me asking about it but they had no idea whether the story was true, whether someone in their company had sent it, no real idea of what was going on at all. They were quite mystified in fact.

But as I’ve said, in theory this sort of thing is possible even if it would be very difficult to do in practice. Further, I’m not really sure that the economics of it quite work out either. Sure, tungsten is vastly cheaper than gold but this would be very skilled work with a low success rate and the gross profits are a few thousand $ per 1 kg bar so treated. It’s most certainly not a 5 minute job either. Nor merchandisable. Just not sure that it would be worth it.

Where the story goes off into fantasy though is here (and Felix is correct in the questions he asks to try and work out prevalence):

If there are 1.3 million salted 400 oz bars in existence, and each one is 75% tungsten, then that makes 390 million ounces of gold which in truth isn’t there. At $1,660 per ounce, that’s over $600 billion which people think they own but don’t. To put that number in context, it’s roughly half the total quantity of subprime mortgages which had been issued at the height of the housing bubble.

The answer to this comes from a commenter there:

The amount of turnover in the market is much higher than you think. In the case of the professional market which deals in 400oz bars, yes many of these sit in central bank vaults but many others are held by private investors and these are traded. There has been no occurrence in my 18 years in the industry, and I haven’t heard of others, of fake 400oz gold bars. Any bar coming out of a LBMA accredited refinery can be trusted because the refinery cannot control or know where the bar will end up and during its life there is a good chance a bar will eventually be melted for use by a jeweller or other refiner and as such there is a high probability of being caught out.

In the retail market I’d guess that turnover is a lot higher, particularly as retail investors do tend to exhibit herding behaviour, which means when there is selling it usually overwhelms retail buyers at that point in time. The end result is that in a net selling situation dealers do not sit on gold due to the high holding costs vs low profit margins and uncertainty as to when buying demand will return, so they liquidate that net selling excess back to refiners, where it is melted. Thus there is a fair bit of turnover and again, a good chance of fakes being detected.

I would take that even further. Even the ingots in central banks, or in gold vaults, sometimes get sent off to be refined. For the very same reason those vaults are regularly vacuumed for the trace amounts of gold that have rubbed/been chipped off the ingots. It’s absolutely true that gold doesn’t oxidise or decompose, but as bars are moved around then they inevitably get bumped and after enough of that they are likely to get sent of for refining so as to maintain their good delivery characteristics. And no, a tungsten filled bar would not be refined without someone noticing.

If I were to assign percentages here I’d say that someone trying to drill out a bar and fill it with tungsten would be up near 100%. I’m sure the idea has occurred to lots of people independently. As to this being a common occurrence among good delivery bars I’d put it down somewhere near zero. There’s just too much turnover of bars through the refineries for this to be possible.

The revenue from the main tungsten industry totaled RMB5.8 billion during Jan-Oct this year, rising 26.1% YOY, according to statistics, 10% higher than the average growth over the county. The tax amounted to RMB140Mt, an increase of 87.8% y-o-y and 62% higher than the average growth throughout the county. The tungsten industry gains great momentum.

The county emphasizes on the cooperation with Jiangxi University of Technology, National Tungsten Inspection Centre and Technique Innovation Centre in the county to enlarge tungsten industry, raise the added value of products and extend the industry chain. The county gives great support on capital, water and electricity supply, policy, talents and listing on the market with Shirui New Mateiral Company , Jiangxi Tungsten Alloy Company and other leading enterprises with potential as centre to strengthen leading companies. In the meantime, the county speeds up technology innovation, express the role of finance to support enterprises to expand production and create, transform technique results and from rough processing to deep processing.

The mainstream scrap tungsten prices maintain steady. The transaction price excluding tax of bit concentrates on ￥187.00-￥191.00/kg, domestic blade is ￥172.00-￥176.00/kg, imported blade is ￥182-186/kg; scrap pure tungsten block is ￥208.00-￥213.00/kg.

The price of the content of scrap tungsten grinding material which is more than 70W is ￥1330.00/mtu, 50W-70W is ￥1270.00/mtu, 30W-40W is ￥1110.00/mtu. The prices above are steady. 10W-20W tungsten unit to ￥635.00/mtu while 8W-10W tungsten to ￥571.00/mtu.

High-level of tungsten concentrate prices have been pared back slightly, but ‘high-price with low-demand’ situation still exists. Under this circumstance, prices of other tungsten products are hard to increase. At the end of year, scrap tungsten resource is short as well as demand, so traders are inactive to deal. Chinatungsten Online predict that scrap tungsten prices will keep steady constantly.

In the international market, the lowest price of oversea tungsten market shows trend to move up. By the night of 12th, the guiding price of MB ferrotungsten in warehouse Rotterdam maintains $42.30-43.50 per kilogram tungsten, which has increased $0.25; the quotation of ammonium paratungstate keeps $304.00-330.00/mtu.

Currently, tungsten concentrate prices show their downward trend that some providers cannot bear high pressure then increase their own tungsten concentrate prices. At present, the fluctuation of one 65W tungsten concentrate metric ton unite focus on ￥1.53-1.58 while the delivery price of it centralize on ￥1.54-1.56.

According to analysis of Chinatungsten Online, the situation of high-price and low-demand in tungsten concentrate market continues. Basically, tungsten concentrate prices have reached to their highest spot before New Year. The end user’s demand is hard to improve so there is low possibility for tungsten concentrate suppliers to raise their prices. Due to worry about market goes to lower level, tungsten concentrate suppliers are willing to jettison their goods. Chinatungsten Online expects that tungsten concentrate price enquiry is going to increase gradually, nevertheless, transaction volume is still sluggish although the prices decline.

The general situation of tungsten concentrate prices can be concluded as chaos in China Mainland. High-priced tungsten concentrate suppliers try to reduce their price tentatively. However, the phenomenon of high-price but low-demand is hard to be better shortly.

As to ferrotungsten, transaction volume is short of support. Some traders’ lowest price of 80% ferrotungsten even could reach ￥185,000.00/mt. In scrap tungsten steel market, both demand and supply are weak. Therefore, more traders choose to wait-and-see. Chinatungsten Online forecasts that the mainstream of scrap tungsten steel price continues to keep steady.

The tungsten concentrate offers increased slightly further these days, but owing to the weak demand, the trading volume did not see obvious improvements. The customers are cautious in purchasing materials now.

Currently, the tungsten prices for wolframite 65% are around RMB118,000-120,000/t (USD288-293/mtu), and the prices for scheelite 65% are around RMB118,000-119,000/t (USD288-291/mtu). Moreover, the tungsten concentrate market sees some higher offers.

A producers based in Guangxi, whose output is around 30 tons per month, noted that they make offers for wolframite 65%min at RMB118,000-120,000/t (USD288-293/mtu) this week, but only few deals are concluded in the spot market.

The source noted that the tungsten concentrate price keeps stable because of soft supply. With approaching of the end of the year, many downstream factories plan to halt production and the demand for tungsten concentrate will keep decreasing. It is expected that the tungsten concentrate market will keep inactive in a short time.

An end-user based in Jiangxi stated that they receive offers for wolframite 60%min at around RMB118,000-120,000/t (USD288-294/mtu). He added that some offers are even higher in the spot market, but only a few deals are concluded in small quantities. As they still have some stocks in hand, they are unwilling to add tungsten concentrate in a short time.

The source said that they mainly produce the tungsten powder, and their offers for medium-sized tungsten carbide powder are at RMB280/kg (USD44.5/kg) now. However, under the current high tungsten concentrate offers, they have to increase offers, but the customers are inactive in purchasing materials. The source expressed that the basic demand is so weak, and he has no confidence towards future market. 

The tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate(APT) prices moved up in the past several days, and the tungsten carbide powder suppliers intended to raise offers. However, as few consumers are active in purchasing materials, tungsten carbide powder market keeps quiet this week. Towards future market, most market participants hold wait-and-see attitudes. The tungsten carbide powder prices are stable tentatively this week.

An end-user for tungsten carbide powder in Shandong noted that they receive offers for medium-sized tungsten carbide powder at RMB280/kg (USD44.5/kg) now. He said that as they have some stocks in hand, they do not eager to buy the materials in a hurry.

The source told Asian Metal that owing to the increasing prices for tungsten concentrate and APT prices, the tungsten carbide powder suppliers plan to raise offers. But the customers are unwilling to accept such high level, and purchasers are reluctant to hold big volume stocks and make procurement from hand to mouth. Looking ahead, he thinks that the tungsten carbide powder market will continue to be quiet in a short time.

An end-user based in Jiangxi noted that the cemented carbide market runs slowly, and the demand for tungsten carbide powder decreases accordingly. They only purchase the materials from hand to mouth. He revealed that they receive offers for medium-sized tungsten carbide powder at around RMB275-280/kg (USD43.7-44.5/kg), and it has been stable for a week.

The source stated that Ganzhou Tungsten Industry Association announced the guiding price of medium-sized tungsten powder at RMB295/kg (USD46.9/kg) on last Wednesday, which increased by RMB25/kg (USD4.0/kg) compared to November. The source expressed that some major companies keep storing tungsten concentrate and intend to push up prices, but owing to the weak demand, it is unlikely for the tungsten carbide powder prices to move up sharply in a short time. 

It isn’t everyday that the word tungsten is used synonymously with gold. This week, a 1,000-gram ‘fake’ gold bar was found in the United Kingdom.Upon realizing discrepancies in the weight of the bar of gold, further tests revealed that the bar had been drilled out and filled with tungsten. In effect the bar was valued at much lower than what was initially thought, and had the trick gone unnoticed, the counterfeiter would have pocketed a substantial amount of profit. 

Chinatungsten Online is honored to be paid much attention recently, meanwhile we feel so sorry that some people are misunderstanding our company and our products.

As Mike Hewitt commented our company and questioned us on www.dollardaze.org, www.Howestreet.com, www.safehaven.com, www.24hgold.com/english/home.aspx, and www.numismaster.com, etc., we felt insulted and we have to make an announcement for this case. We hope these websites and many other websites that have the similar comments can link to this announcement to help restore Chinatungsten Online’s reputation.

In order to be known better, we would like to introduce our company:

Tungsten concentrate price still moves up from high level today. Currently, 65% tungsten concentrate price could reach ￥121,000.00/mt. However, some tungsten concentrate suppliers are not confidence with later tungsten concentrate market while traders try to suppress the price. Tungsten concentrate price in spot market focus on ￥115,000.00/mt. Generally speaking, price range of tungsten concentrate is relatively big but transaction volume is still weak.