With the recent series of good news, the rare earth industry is bottoming out. Currently dysprosium, terbium prices at historically relatively low, combined with the future regulation of the national industrial policy become more severe and growing consumer sector demand, prices become a trend.

Under the influence of a series of policy control, the continued downturn in rare earth prices show signs of stabilizing. Analysts pointed out that, as the industry gradually straighten out the relationship between supply and demand, rare earth prices are expected to come out of the bottom. As this year was the most sluggish non-ferrous metals sub-sector, rare earth plate layout point is slowly opened.

The report notes, rare earth prices are out of the bottom, in the current favorable policy support, while the price of rare earth products all the way up. Data show that since the third quarter of praseodymium neodymium oxide prices have risen, or about 2.7%, other rare earth raw material prices also have different degrees of increase. Institutional analysis, as dysprosium, terbium excellence in the industry, particularly on the high-tech industry can not be replaced, coupled with the extreme scarcity of resources, the supply is limited, the future of rare earth dysprosium, terbium price is bound to be an effective support to its investment value will change over time goes increasingly prominent.


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Recent interview with a foreign investment websites Jon Hykawy, he talked about some of the WTO and China's rare earth lawsuits and things about China's crackdown on illegal mining, provides some interesting insights, Jon Hykawy for Stormcrow Capital., President of the company, many years RE investment research and clean energy, Jon Hykawy holds a doctorate in physics. Interview Jon Hykawy mainly expressed in the following views:

First, China's crackdown on illegal rare earth mining can not completely eliminate the illicit production of rare earths

In an interview with Jon Hykawy said that although China plans to supply 40 percent of all combat illegal rare earth away, but the illegal exploitation of the South Mine basically impossible to completely eliminate in China, because the ionic rare earth mine in southern China, is highly fragmented, and in some small villages and hills heads are small workshop production, and it is easy to extract the mineral ions, which makes it even this small workshop after being hit is also very easy to re-start production, but most of this illegal rare earth mining by the local government to protect, so he thinks the one hand, are small workshop production, require little cost and the production of the mine is so expensive, so China can not completely belly absolutely illegal exploitation of the South 方南子 mine. Jon Hykawy said that these small workshop production of illegal rare earth, finally able to go abroad, usually through some legitimate business of the company, of course, the illegal export of rare earths are labeled a variety of labels, "alloy", through some complex procedures, while exports of these products company, to avoid restricted mandatory plans, he believes that China's recent fight against illegal mining may be of such a company may have a substantial impact.

Second, the quota is not gone, just to see it

Hykawy said: think WTO lawsuit against the Chinese rare earth quotas would be China's actual export policy impact is a "delusion" because China through the integration of a large group, have been attributed to the production of rare earths in the hands of a few large state-owned groups to China aluminum, for example, it is actually a microcosm of the entire business of a large group of rare earths, assuming you're a middle-level staff in aluminum, you can follow the instructions to do the top, imagine if you're a sales manager, you responsible for rare earth aluminum business, you got the call that can only export 2,000 tons of rare earth, and you have received an order of 4,000 tons of foreign customers, how would you do this time? I think you can only give you a few customers call and tell them, very sorry, because "production issues" this month, last month promised only export half the amount of rare earths. In fact, this will make China's rare earth exports more opaque and unstable, and at the same time, he felt this rare foreign manufacturers is an opportunity to seize this opportunity, but overseas users on the one hand very seriously stable rare earth products supply, on the one hand they want to buy Chinese rare earth prices. However, customers may eventually be persuaded to pay a higher price pole supply of materials to ensure the safety of the village.


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Vice president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China rare earth industry branch president, said recently in Beijing Wang Qin, rare earth market order remains to be further standardized running against black chain is still a very both tasks.

"This black chain in the end how much the amount, it is difficult to say," Wang Qin said when attending the China Entrepreneur Summit strategic metals.

Illegal mining, unplanned, ultra indicators of production still exists

Previously, data from the China Rare Earth Association, in 2014 China's rare earth production is 105,000 tons mandatory plan, only the domestic demand will exceed 150,000 tons. Although such quotas Show shortage is inevitable, but now the actual situation of oversupply in the market is still there, and these extra portion According to expert analysis, it is likely that come from illegal sources.

And black rare earth industry chain, but also the looming signs of collusion.

In the last case of illegal rare earth mining in Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Anyuan County, the local party secretary, in charge of industry Standing Committee, Vice Mayor and Public Security Bureau were investigated. MIIT raw material industries Division inspector had said Jia Yinsong, this case has fully exposed the collusion behind the phenomenon of black interests of the chain.

Wang Qin said that the current market order rare run remains to be further standardized, after the first period of consolidation yielded good results, but illegal mining, unplanned, ultra indicators of production still exists, resulting in a substantial decline in the market price of rare earths, squeezing the legitimate business profit margins, interference market order, crack down on black chain is still a very both tasks.

In order to integrate the rare earth industry, according to the State Department on the 12th document, the State Council has approved the establishment of six Rare Earth Group program, Baotou Steel Group, Xiamen Tungsten (600,549, stock it), the aluminum company and other three groups filed embodiment has received the Ministry of Industry. Meanwhile in the management of SMEs, this year the Ministry issued the 2014 elimination of backward industrial overcapacity in the list of companies. The government hopes to support large rare earth enterprises and small and medium enterprises to rationalize the management of rare earth production mechanism.

There are signs of a rare earth downstream

For this year's rare earth production situation, Wang Qin considered rebound phenomenon, in the first three quarters of the rare earth industry in general should say this is a smooth operator.

She said according to data from January to September this year, as mining and smelting of rare earth producers are basically arranged in accordance with the Land Department, the Ministry issued indicators of production, production remained stable trend, the main business income of 56.7 billion yuan, an increase of 4.38 %, a profit of 2.96 billion yuan, down 24.1%, increase in export volume drop less rare earth metals fell 30.8%, other rare earth export volume year on year growth.

Some of the rare earth deep-processing products, such as rare earth permanent magnet exports grew by 16.7% and imports rose 5 percent, import and export trade surplus fell 11.9 percent, with the rare-earth prices gradually fall, consumer demand downstream gradually warmer.

Currently, a good investor expectations purchasing and storage of rare earths and great interest. Just last weekend, headquartered in Kunming Pan-Asian exchanges in the domestic non-ferrous rare species listed first dysprosium and terbium oxide, terbium oxide value of 8.24 million and the value of 22,350,000 of dysprosium, a total of 3,000 million rare earth products, once listed for sale sold out within a short period to facilitate the declaration of 5 seconds and 24 seconds.

Wang Qin believes that the long term, the development of China's electronic information, aerospace, electric vehicles, energy-efficient lighting, new energy and other industries, will be driven by strong growth in demand for rare earths. According to the Association did predict that in 2020 the growth rate of China's annual demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials luminescent material catalytic materials will reach 9.5%, respectively, around 4.7% and 7%, all kinds of phosphors is expected to reach about 6,000 tons the amount of hydrogen storage materials demand will reach 80,000 tons of rare earth industry still have confidence, mainly downstream demand has signs of recovery.

Investment industry, the quality of the overall investment also improved. January to August this year, China's rare earth industry investment in fixed assets of 60.9 billion yuan, an increase of 17.2%, the new funds are used for the overall relocation, technology upgrades and environmental rectification.

Wang Qin also expected this year, all of the country's 10 kinds of nonferrous metals output growth is expected to be around 7%, investment growth is about to be dropped to around 5%.


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"In the illegal mining of private mines, privately separation, privately smelting, then product sales excluding tax black earth industry chain, the state repeatedly playing endless, with the collusion exists a relationship here," October 31, China Minerals and Chemicals importers and pan-Asian non-ferrous metals exchanges will be co-sponsored "China entrepreneur Summit strategic metal" gap, China Research Institute of Economic Research resource Economics of Land and Resources management Deputy Director Li Ruijun told the Economic Observer Online.

Since 2008 he worked at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association vice president Wang Qin said at the meeting, the rare earth industry production order has yet to be standardized, after rectifying some time ago, and has achieved initial success, but the illegal exploitation, unplanned indicators production still exists, resulting in a substantial decline in the market price of rare earth, compression legitimate corporate profit margins, banning black chain is still very arduous task.

Data provided by Wang Qin, China's annual amount of the illegal exploitation of illegal production of rare earth mining and smelting separation products amounted to about 40,000 tons and 50,000 tons respectively, but this is only speculation, "the real amount is difficult to say."

Order Li Ruijun Sadly, our country with 23 percent of rare earth resources to bear the world's more than 90 percent of the market supply, in particular, as currently mined, our heavy rare earth and then mined for about 15 years it has come to no rare earth recoverable situation . And the heavy rare earth rich more than the light rare earth metal element, and a higher value than the light rare earth metal elements, so the price is about ten times the light rare earths.

Recently, the Ministry issued a notice eight ministries and conduct special operations against illegal activities of rare earth, the "hitting" action lasted six months, the time span than in previous years.

October 31, an import and export trading company, told the Economic Observer Online, although the country under heavy blow, many companies do not dare alien smuggling rare, but our company can still take 10 to 20 tons per day fee is 5 yuan per kilogram. Yesterday also take a number, is from Guangdong to Hong Kong and then transfer abroad.

Import and export trading company who said to the Economic Observer Online, we can go into the course, because in both places and customs "have ways", through inspection and customs of the country.

Economic Observer has learned that the integration of large rare earth chess game will soon reveal the answer, has now finalized the Baosteel Group, China Rare Earth Aluminum and Xiamen Tungsten three large groups, recently revealed that the Ministry of the remaining three Rare Earth Group will enter specific demonstration phase of the program . Six by the State Council approved the large group of rare earths, has not been announced for the three programs: China Minmetals, Rising colored and Ganzhou Rare Earth Group.

Li Ruijun analysis, WTO, China has lost the lawsuit, estimated China's rare earth export quota policy may be canceled next year, and in the export volume is no policy restrictions, but good is also accelerating the integration of large rare-earth group, which will contain the rare black but how to control black rare problem fundamentally is still pending and solve problems together.


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According to Korean media reports, Russia to help the DPRK to achieve the modernization of the railway network conditions, and North Korea reached an agreement on the mining of rare earth resources.

South Korea, "Central Daily News" Web site Oct. 30 citing Russian media sources said the Russian Far East Development Minister, said Alexander Galuška Russian companies will need to invest $ 25 billion to participate in the Korean railway network modernization project "Victory" project, "This contract period of 20 years, Russia will be in North Korea in exchange for the mining of mineral resources. "

Reported that Galuška minister's visit to Pyongyang on October 20 -24 days to participate in the project groundbreaking ceremony on October 21 - the "Azusa holes - Gangnam - Nampo railway station interval start building ceremony."

Russia's industry-academia complex "Mostow than the" push this project aims to help North Korea in the total length of 7000 km of railway network, the first 3200 km modernize the railway network, exchange, Mostow than in Korea mining of rare earth metals and mineral resources of titanium, tantalum, gold, coal and so on. Galuška minister said North Korea's rare earth metal buried about seven times that of China.

North Korea and Russia first began this month with rubles, and plans to introduce visa-free regime. Galuška Minister said (Russia's largest hydroelectric power station operators) Ruth Xideluo plans to promote the connection of the Russian Far East and North Korea, South Korea's large-scale inter-Korean Russian electricity network.
 

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October 28 afternoon, "First Financial Daily" reporter learned from authoritative sources, in order to respond to changes in rare earth export situation, the next stage, the Ministry will promptly revise and improve relevant policies and regulations and management measures.

Specific measures include: to promote the early introduction of rare regulations; revise and improve instruction and rare earth rare earth management approach; the establishment of rare earth products traceability system; improve resource taxes South ionic rare earth. It will also continue to implement the classification of the severity of the rare-earth management, to crack down on illegal rare earth production, meanwhile, continue to adjust and a corresponding increase in light rare earth targets.

Geneva time on August 7, WTO announced the United States, European Union, Japan v China rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum export management measures related to the case (that rare case) Appellate Body report. WTO Appellate Body had experts maintain export tariffs on Chinese products involved, the export quota measures do not comply with the relevant WTO rules and China's WTO commitments ruling.

Because of the rare earth export situation in the doldrums, there has been a surplus of rare earth export quotas, exports of rare earths outside of the abolition of the quota system differences also exist, but the president of the China Rare Earth Industry Association Gan Yong believes that if this cancellation of rare earth export quotas, it will further increase rare earth industry management more difficult.

MIIT also made a basic judgment, WTO litigation case late, after next year's export quota of rare earth-related market will have to adjust the impact point will be difficult in the first quarter of next year.

China Merchants Securities said in a research report said that with the WTO litigation against rare earth export quota policy adjustment is inevitable, "the first quarter of 2015 will be a critical period for China's rare earth industry, in order to prevent a drop in price of Export Growth situation, the state regulation of rare earth industry can not wait. "

And on the rare earth mandatory plan, although the total annual increased, but the implementation of mandatory plans have been criticized by the industry. Among them, this year's rare earth ore (rare earth oxides REO) total production control index was 10.5 million tons, but compared to the current actual production of rare earth, there are still companies "not enough."

For this reason, after a period of deliberation, the Ministry decided to Bianzhao in policies and regulations. Specifically, carry out special operations against illegal acts of rare earth; and accelerate the formation of large rare-earth enterprise group; utilization of rare earth resources management practices. Level in policies and regulations, the Ministry will promptly revise and improve relevant management measures.

 

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Export of raw materials and other measures Disputes in the WTO against China's rare earth. Reporters just learned that in order to cope with the change of rare earth export situation next year, the next stage, the Ministry will promptly revise and improve relevant policies and regulations and management measures.

These include: promoting the early introduction of rare regulations; revise and improve instruction and rare earth rare earth management approach; the establishment of rare earth products traceability system; for LREE of category management, to crack down on illegal rare earth production, meanwhile, continue to adjust and a corresponding increase in light RE targets; increase resource tax South ionic rare earth.

According to the China Nonferrous Metals Association data, global economic growth, lack of motivation, the impact of declining domestic economic growth and other factors, the downward trend appears rare earth market demand, prices fall resulting in enterprise efficiency decline, production and management faced with many difficulties. 1 to August, more than 190 nationwide scale rare earth mining, smelting enterprises realized profits of 2.5 billion yuan, down 24.6%; exports of $ 1 billion of rare earth products, down 0.7%. At the same time, the rise of illegal production signs appear; these uncertainties are so rare earth industry is facing new challenges.
 

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Today, the rare earth market price held steady or continued low volatility down, the price repeatedly dip, a weak market. Praseodymium, neodymium products, currently single oxide because of poor demand, fewer inquiries, contract situation is not satisfactory, the price is also little decrease. To steady this week, neodymium oxide prices low or continue to fall, there are price adjustment, the range of -1 5,000 yuan / ton, the mainstream market fell to around 265,000 yuan / ton. Pr-Nd mixed oxide has some inquiries, but the price has dropped to 280,000 yuan / ton and below, the relative decline in the last week, about $ 5,000 / ton, while the praseodymium neodymium metal market there are some low turnover, according to Ganzhou area manufacturers now reflect the market price at between 36-36.5 yuan / ton.

Gadolinium products, this year gadolinium oxide and gadolinium iron prices are not only lower the minimum current gadolinium oxide with ticket prices have dropped more than 80,000, fell in 2011 the initial price. Back in August and September because of concerns the price outlook continues to decline, some businesses choose to wait and see clearing stock market, gadolinium oxide and gadolinium iron market is limited profit, businesses profit upside down or have been faced with the situation upside down, or continue down the price outlook.

Europium, terbium oxide market's recent price rebound is not now, europium oxide low volatility, traders now to offer their own has dropped to 2200 yuan / kg, terbium oxide slight fluctuations in the past two weeks, the adjustment range of 50-100 yuan / kg, according to Ganzhou some businesses today expressed terbium oxide with tickets currently about 2550 yuan / kg.

 

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Dated 27 March 2014, the United States, European Union, Japan against China rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum export restrictions, China has put forward "to protect the environment," the very Western way of saying to the defense, the WTO ruled that China eventually lost. Japanese media commented that "China's strategy of complete failure."

Indeed, the Chinese rare earth export restrictions has once again been cut violations, gave great good Europe and other countries, as a entry point, China's exports of strategic resources management system may face shocks.

In accordance with the usual Western view, the development of high-tech rare earth is a strategic resource indispensable, from smartphones to missile guidance are inseparable from the "industrial vitamins." But over the years, China has to account for only 23 percent of the world's total reserves reserve supply 95% of the world's rare earth production, not only the low price was like "selling gold potatoes price", there is a huge environmental cost to pay.

Can be found in China's rare earth resources are cheap to Japan and the United States. And when China began to realize that the problem is serious rare earth export restrictions, the United States and Japan has shown impatience after another to say "no."

"Rare Earth science and technology once used for military, military science and technology will inevitably bring jumped." Eleventh National People's Congress, Zhou Hongyu, deputy director of Hubei Provincial People's Congress, said in his motion, "In a certain sense, the US military in the post-Cold War several local war can be overwhelming control, and the ability to openly killing the enemy with impunity, is due to science and technology in the field of rare earth takes the cake. "

"The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths, China's rare earth resources account for 80% of the world's known reserves, its status can be compared with the Middle East's oil, has an extremely important strategic significance, must take the rare things well, the advantage of China's rare earth play out. "this is 1992 Deng Xiaoping's" Southern Talk "in some speech against China's rare earth resources.

But contrast, in quite a long time, China's general awareness of rare earth mineral resources remain in the general perception of equal treatment, the export is one of its main tasks. From the early 90s of last century, the cheaper Chinese-made rare earth step by step erode the market share Mans 登帕斯 mine, but also to the rare earth ore prices since 1992 fell to $ 11,700 per ton of $ 7,430 in 1996.

Subsequently, China with its own resources and reduce the exploitation of Europe and the scale of the machine, became the world's largest rare earth mining and exporting countries. According to the US Geological Survey Minerals Summary Annual Report 2007 published statistics, China's rare earth mineral reserves first in the world, accounting for more than 90% of rare earth annual world's rare earth production, total exports accounted for 80% of the world.

But even in this world behind the scenery, hidden with a little embarrassment. Since the mining of rare earth ore into a herd of chaos, resulting in a large number of rare earth resources have been ruined, destroyed, and cheap, the vast majority of exports are not rolling, forging or only by simple processing of primary products, in exchange for money outweigh the benefits.

"Before and after September 2008, with a purity of 99.9% cerium oxide for 18 yuan kg, while the highest sold for 30 yuan kg the past," Dong Hua Sen said, "high-tech electronics, lasers, communications, superconducting materials such as rare earths are needed, but China's rare earth prices have not gone up, you can not own pricing, at a disadvantage. "


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Ministry of Industry recently released "Letter on the fight against organized illegal acts rare special action" clearly, since October 10, 2014 to March 31, 2015 to carry out special operations to combat rare nationwide illegal behavior. Action will be divided into three phases: October 10 to November 25 for self-examination stage, November 26 to January 31, 2015 for the rectification stage in 2015, February 1 to March 31 for acceptance summary stage. This action will jointly investigate rare earth mining, production, illegal exploitation of distribution companies, the sale of illegal minerals processing, tax evasion charges, billing and other illegal products off-site behavior, we should focus on priority areas investigated 2- rare earth based on invoices and reports and other clues three typical cases.

Round action to combat illegal rare earth lasted nearly six months, compared with 2013 to double the duration of the special action, and a clear plan of corrective action period, and extended the acceptance period summed up to two months. Verification mining, production, circulation, based on a clear round action included in the scope of verification will be exported, required by the production chain, verifiable sources of rare earth export their products until the mineral source.

The action is focused on the recovery of a major highlight of the mining of rare earth enterprises fully paid VAT, tax and mineral resources compensation fees, sewage fees, taxes and fees. This initiative is expected to resolve the long-standing problem of illegal illegal production of low-cost; another highlight of this action is to establish a rare earth production and business files, provide the basis for the daily management of the future of the industry.

Analysts pointed out that, according to the multi-party statistics, illegal mining Daowa accounted for more than 22.7% of the world's total supply of rare earths, is the direct cause of the proliferation of supply. If this illegal action to combat rare achieved good results, will significantly shrink the supply and repair of great supply and demand, thereby supporting the long-term upward price. Since 2014 RE prices tumbled, has been in the bottom position, the end of this time point action combined with the rare earth consumption season, it is expected that the recent rare earth prices are expected to bottom out, after the end of action is expected to occur rare earth prices rose significantly.

 

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