Tungsten Industry Chain Stalemate, Focus on Macro News

Prices of Tungsten Products on June 12, 2025

Tungsten Price Trend from January to June 12, 2025

Analysis of Latest Tungsten Market from Chinatungsten Online

Opening with Three Macro News

On June 10, the front page of People's Daily published a full article titled "The More Open the Country Is, the More It Will Drive Us to Make Greater Progress." The article features an interview with Ren Zhengfei, founder of Chinese tech giant Huawei, discussing the development of China’s high-tech sector under U.S. restrictions. It has garnered significant attention from foreign media.

On June 10, China’s Ministry of National Defense, citing the "People’s Navy" WeChat public account, released a major announcement: Recently, the Chinese Navy’s Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carrier groups, accompanied by over 70 warships, conducted training exercises in the waters beyond the second island chain in the Western Pacific, not far from Guam. The exercises aimed to test the troops' far sea defense and joint combat capabilities. This was a routine training exercise not directed at any specific country. This has aroused great concern in the international community.

According to the Global Times, Chinese and U.S. trade officials continued their second day of consultations in London, UK, on June 10. U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that the negotiations were "progressing smoothly," a development that has been met with global encouragement.

These developments feel almost surreal and may evoke memories of 1840 among the Chinese people!

The above is not a digression. In the current awkward phase of the tungsten market—marked by a high-stakes standoff between supply and demand, and set against an unclear geopolitical and economic backdrop—subtle shifts in the macroeconomic direction could trigger a chain reaction in the strategic tungsten market. This warrants further attention.

Current State: Stalemate in Tungsten Industry Chain and Low Trading Activity

According to research by China Tungsten Online, the tungsten market is currently locked in a classic three-way standoff:

Raw material suppliers, leveraging their resource endowment advantage, continue to hold prices firm. Consumers, constrained by weak terminal demand, are passively bearing the pressure. Intermediate smelting and processing enterprises find themselves caught in a dilemma. Specifically, while raw material enterprises show some willingness to sell, their pricing remains robust. Powder metallurgy and deep-processing enterprises are steadily depleting their inventories, making only point-to-point purchases based on rigid orders. Back-to-back transactions across the supply chain have increased, with buyers and sellers matching orders as needed to avoid the risks of holding inventory. As a result, actual transaction volumes in the market remain sluggish.

Several alloy factories have reported to China Tungsten Online that passing on price increases to downstream customers remains challenging, yet raw material procurement costs are already high. They dare not accept orders rashly, unless it’s to maintain relationships with long-standing clients. Some alloy factories that previously held raw material inventories have now largely exhausted them. They hope prices will stabilize or even decline slightly in the near future, allowing them to purchase only what is necessary for orders without holding excess stock.

Latest Tungsten Product Prices:

65% black tungsten concentrate: RMB 173,000/ton, up 21.0% from the beginning of the year.

Ammonium paratungstate (APT): RMB 253,000/ton, up 19.9% from the beginning of the year.

Tungsten powder: RMB 378/kg, up 19.6% from the beginning of the year.

Tungsten carbide powder: RMB 373/kg, up 19.9% from the beginning of the year.

70% ferrotungsten: RMB 258,000/ton, up 20.0% from the beginning of the year.

European ferrotungsten: USD 50-51/kg W, up 14.8% from the beginning of the year.

European APT: USD 410-450/mtu, up 30.3% from the beginning of the year.

Today, the price of some tungsten scrap in Hebei and other regions has dropped by RMB 2-3/kg.

Export Situation: Partial Recovery Amid Ongoing Restrictions

Feedback from enterprises indicates a slight improvement in the export of tungsten carbide and tungsten powder recently. Larger powder factories have seen some market openings, and certain ports have allowed the inspection and release of powder shipments. However, restrictions on the export of ammonium paratungstate (APT) and tungsten oxide show no signs of easing. For more details, please refer to China Tungsten Online’s upcoming release of tungsten product import and export data for May, scheduled for later this month.

U.S.-China Relations: Expectations of Easing Tensions with Lingering Risks

The first phase of U.S.-China consultations in the UK has concluded, with both sides expressing deep optimism. They indicated that they would report to higher authorities upon returning home and continue negotiations after coordinating with domestic departments. China Tungsten Online estimates that both sides will release additional goodwill gestures in the near future. We believe the U.S. should—and will—offer more goodwill. Following the Geneva talks, the U.S. unilaterally imposed numerous restrictions. Economically, many U.S. companies are struggling due to shortages of critical mineral raw materials, such as rare earths. Politically, unrest in the U.S. has rapidly spread from Los Angeles across the country, with President Trump publicly clashing with California Governor Newsom and openly breaking with close ally Elon Musk. Consequently, the Trump administration faces significant pressure. Failure to quickly reach an agreement with China could lead to political and economic instability, both domestically and internationally.

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