Metals Report Interview on Tungsten-Ⅱ

TMR: Part of the REE narrative is the limited ability to substitute other materials in specific applications. Are consumers of tungsten required to use tungsten for their particular applications?

MS: Pretty much. In most current applications, there aren’t any viable substitutes for tungsten. Demand for tungsten is therefore relatively inelastic to price changes. Five years ago, when prices started to increase, demand didn’t drop. In fact, demand was still growing at the time. Consumers require tungsten and are willing to pay for it. There’s no real substitute.

TMR: How do you track the pricing trends in the various global tungsten markets?

MS: One feature of tungsten, as with REEs, is there’s no terminal market. There’s no exchange where you can pull up the tungsten price like you can do with copper, gold or wheat. You’re relying on price discovery publications like Metal Bulletin, Metal Pages and Metals Weekly. Depending where they’re published, they give you an idea of regional pricing. Metals Weekly is a U.S. publication, so it tends to focus on U.S. prices. Metal Bulletin is based in Europe. Metal Pages has a very strong Chinese office so it can watch Chinese prices closely.

Even with those sources, it is still difficult to get exact prices for materials due to the nature of the contracts. But over time, you can see trends developing. Recently, because the European market has been weak, European tungsten prices have lagged behind China, where the tungsten market is growing quicker. Chinese economic growth is still at 7–8%, so they’re in a different part of the cycle than Europe, which has been a bit of a disaster area. But European prices are now starting to catch up and are similar to the Chinese export prices at the moment. Due to the nature of the market, pricing differentials do pop up in different regions from time to time.

TMR: Are there large players that can set prices across regional tungsten markets?

MS: Not really. I suppose if you’re looking at the price for tungsten, your first port of call is China because it accounts for so much of the market. The Chinese export market sets the world price and that’s a price you can buy Chinese tungsten—if it’s available. In the U.S., companies such as Global Tungsten Powders and Kennametal Inc. are quite big purchasers. In Europe, major consumers could include companies like H.C. Starck and Sandvik, for example. Whether they’re big enough to set prices, I don’t know.

Tungsten tends to be produced and sold to the consumer on relatively longer-term contracts, so spot business is less important. People tend to form their contracts based on the Metal Bulletin or Metal Pages price or whichever price source they feel most comfortable with. The contract will be for a certain amount of tonnage over a certain period of time and it could be a premium or a discount to the Metal Bulletin published price, depending on grade and quality.

TMR: How is tungsten price performance right now?

MS: The tungsten market is performing pretty well when you compare it to other minor metals—over both short and longer-term time horizons. Tungsten prices have been increasing for about five months in a row now. [See the chart below.]

The supply side will drive the tungsten price in the near future. China’s not going to change its strategic approach to natural resources management. The whole export license and export quota system will remain in place. Effectively, you’ll find less and less intermediate tungsten available for export from China. They’ll be shipping out more finished products whether it’s tungsten carbide powders, drill bits or cutting tools. The good news is that this presents an opportunity for tungsten mine projects.


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