It’s a famous bet in the ongoing battle to try and get environmentalists to understand economics. The bet between Julian Simon, the economist, and Paul Ehrlich, the environmentalist. Ehrlich insisted that commodities would become more expensive: they were running out in the face of the population explosion. Simon asserted the opposite: more people meant more brains meant better methods of extraction and lower usage per unit of production. Thus prices should fall.

Simon won: but that’s not quite the end of the matter. With different commodities, or over different timescales with the same ones, Ehrlich could have. Which is something that Mark Perry notes here:

    “It will surprise no-one that the bet’s payoff was highly dependent on its start date. Simon famously offered to bet comers on any timeline longer than a year, and on any commodity, but the bet itself was over a decade, from 1980-1990. If you started the bet any year during the 1980s Simon won eight of the ten decadal start years. During the 1990s things changed, however, with Simon the decadal winners in four start years and Ehrlich winning six – 60% of the time. And if we extend the bet into the current decade, taking Simon at his word that he was happy to bet on any period from a year on up, then Ehrlich won every start-year bet in the 2000s. He looks like he’ll be a perfect Simon/Ehrlich ten-for-ten.”

For the underlying argument though this is the important point:

    I’m not so sure that Simon was just lucky. If Simon’s position was that natural resources and commodities become generally more abundant over long periods time, reflected in falling real prices, I think he was more right than lucky, as the graph above demonstrates.  Stated differently, if Simon was really betting that inflation-adjusted prices of a basket of commodity prices have a significantly negative trend over long periods of time, and Ehrlich was betting that the slope of that line was significantly positive, I think Simon wins the bet.

For Professor Perry shows us the all commodities index over the near century that we have data. And it is indeed declining. Sure, there are periods where the alarmists would win, but the general move over time favours the cornucopians.

My interest here though is to explain exactly why it was that Simon won in the 80s, the period of the original bet. And also why Erhlich would have won in the late 90s and 00s. But why he would still lose over substantial time periods (and no, I’m not willing to make a bet on this).

The original bet was on the following commodities: nickel, copper, chromium, tin and tungsten.

And there were a couple of standout points in that decade of the 80s. Tin, for example, slumped in price. But it wasn’t for any environmental nor even technological reason. It was because the world cartel backing the price went bankrupt. This was the International Tin Council. An organisation set up post-WWII to ensure a “fair” tin price. As anyone at all who has read the works of the late James Buchanan will immediately understand, the people who were really interested in this were the producers. Public choice theory does tell us that consumers won’t worry all that much about the price of only one material, for they use many and the price of just the one isn’t all that important. Producers will worry a great deal about the price of their only product. Thus governmentally determined “fair” prices will end up being high prices.

This is indeed what happened and to keep them high the ITC bought in and stored excess production. By 1985 they didn’t have any more money, they went bust and the price collapsed.

This was hugely beneficial to Simon’s side of the bet but wasn’t really the point he was arguing on. That is much better represented by what happened to copper. The full story is here.

The story is SX-EW (solvent extraction and electro-winning). This is what Simon was talking about: that technology would advance and new stocks of materials would be exploitable. This would happen faster than demand would leading to falls in prices. SX-EW opened up the entire planet to another wave of copper exploration. Roughly, before 1980, we made copper from copper sulfides. If we found a mountain of copper oxide then that’s what it stayed at, copper oxide. Copper oxide wasn’t copper ore, it was simply dirt, for we didn’t know how to extract the copper from it.

SX-EW changed that: it’s a process to extract copper from copper oxide. Thus all those mountains of copper oxide out there (and there are many, quite literally, mountains of copper oxide) became copper ore instead of dirt. Thus the price declined.

Moving on into the 90s the great event in the non-ferrous and minor metals world (all of these metals are in one of those two groups) was the collapse of the Soviet Union. Firstly, the economy collapsed meaning that there were no consumers there for the metals that were being produced. Thus they flooded onto the world markets, depressing prices. But more than that, there was also the series of stockpiles. One estimate is of $700 billion’s worth. These also flooded out onto world markets.

Take, as an example, tungsten. Today’s price is around the $50 a kg level. The price in the 80s was, inflation adjusted, not far off that. But in the 90s it fell to $7 a kg. Just so much was flooding out of the CIS (the ex-Soviet Union by this point) that that price had collapsed.  I played my tiny part in this, purchasing a few container loads here and there. And much the same happened to nickel, aluminium and chromium.

This explains why taking the prices from the mid 90s onwards would favour the Ehrlich side of the bet. Nothing at all to do with increasing scarcity in the grand sense, just a recovery of prices from their post-Soviet low. Once that $700 billion stockpile had been sold prices would obviously recover.

Just to give you an example of what this meant, I’m currently working in the Ore Mountains. On the Czech/German border. There are a number of tin/tungsten mines here, all closed by 1992 at the latest as as result of that ex-Soviet flood. They’re all reopening in the next few years as prices are back to around their long term levels. It was the 90s that was the exception: some of these mines have been going since the 14th century.

One more little story about nickel. There was great excitement in the 90s as an Australian company announced that it had a new process, capable of extracting nickel from a new type of ore. An ore of which there was bountiful amounts lying around in Australian deserts. The whole system would make them the lowest cost producers in the world.

This, not unnaturally, made everyone else hesitant to invest in new nickel projects. So no new ones were started. Then it turned out this new technology was a bit more complex than first thought and the company went bust. Which led to a vast spike in the nickel price. At which point people scrambled to get nickel projects going again, the new owners of the bust plant got it sorted out and prices came back down again. They’ve more than halved since the peak.

The end result of all of this is that yes, it is true that Ehrlich could have, would have, won the bet depending upon the starting date. But note that it would have been either political actions, or teething problems with new technology, that would have allowed that. None of these metals faces an actual shortage as yet. Further, note that over variable time scales Simon is still correct: it really is true that new technologies of extraction are developed and these increase supply and push prices down.

Which leaves me trying to point out that Simon really was correct: it’s just the timescale that can be a bit dodgy. We do discover new mineral resources, we do develop new extraction technologies, which make larger amounts of mineral resources available to us. There are other events that happen, certainly, which push prices up for periods of time. But the long term trend for metals at least is downwards.

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The way tungsten is sharpened can mean the difference between a sound and poor tungsten inert gas (TIG) weld. Unlike aluminum, tungsten for stainless steel requires a sharp point with a long taper to direct the arc from the TIG welder to the surface of the stainless steel. Using a tungsten sharpener places the correct taper and tip on a tungsten electrode without the off center grind associated with using a bench grinder.

Instructions

        1
        Set a tungsten grinder on a level surface. Turn on the grinder. Allow it to reach the recommended grinding speed.

        2
        Turn the size dial -- located on the front of the grinder -- to the size of the tungsten electrode you need to sharpen.

        3
        Slide one end of the tungsten electrode into the hole located on the size dial. Push the tungsten toward the grinder until the tungsten begins to spin. Release the tungsten. Allow it to spin in the grinder for one minute.

        4
        Turn off the grinder. Remove the tungsten electrode from the size dial. Inspect the point at the end of the electrode. Turn on the grinder and reinsert the tungsten if the end of the electrode does not form a sharp point.

        5
        Repeat the process to sharpen the other end of the tungsten electrode.

Tips & Warnings

    Protect your eyes by wearing safety glasses when using a tungsten grinder to sharpen a tungsten electrode.

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Tungsten rings and stainless steel rings are both cost-effective alternatives to the more expensive gold and platinum selections. However, there are differences between them to keep in mind depending on your needs and budget.

    Durability
        Tungsten and stainless steel rings both resist fading, rust and corrosion. Neither metal will stain the body. Tungsten is a much heavier metal than stainless steel, and is therefore stronger and harder to scratch. However, stainless steel is durable enough to hold up to daily wear with proper care.

    Style and Finish
        Both types of rings can be given a variety of styles and finishes. Due to its superior strength, a tungsten ring's polish and finish will outlast that of a stainless steel ring.

    Sizing Options
        Neither type of ring can be resized. Tungsten rings are readily available in most sizes, even in hard-to-find half sizes. It can be more difficult to find the right size in the desired style of stainless steel ring.

    Financial Considerations
        Costs for both types of rings can vary widely, but stainless steel is less expensive. A 2010 search on Amazon.com found an 8mm flat band tungsten ring for $29.95 and a comparable sterling silver ring for $5.22. At the national jewelry retailer Zales, a sterling ring went for $119, and a comparable tungsten ring was just under $280.

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Tungsten is a popular metal used in rings for men and women because of its high quality, being nature's hardest element and having a melting point of 6192°F. These characteristics are what make tungsten carbide virtually scratch proof and extremely durable according to Tungsten World.

    Jewelry Stores
        Tungsten carbide rings are sold in jewelry chain stores around the world today. Tungsten carbide rings range in price from about $200 to $900, depending on their style and if there are inlays of diamonds.

    Online
        The Internet has many sites selling quality tungsten rings. There are tungsten carbide wedding bands, tungsten Inlay bands, and black tungsten bands. These rings range in price from about $150 to $1,000.

    Auction Sites
        There are many auction sites on the Web, where you can search for tungsten ring or wedding band and find many auctions going with lower prices than you may find in a jewelry store or an online site. Some have tungsten ring bids for as low as $50. Keep in mind that tungsten rings can not be sized so make sure you have the correct measurement for your finger before ordering.

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Chosen for its durability, scratch resistance and beautiful silver color, tungsten rings are a popular choice for wedding bands and men's fashion rings. Tungsten is five times harder than steel and 10 times harder than 18 karat gold. This rugged durability makes tungsten rings ideal for people performing manual labor who wish to wear jewelry while working. If you need to remove a tungsten ring because of an emergency, medical or otherwise, you can remove it with common household tools. This is not difficult but it may destroy the ring. When the ring is cut, the metal will shatter.

Instructions

    Tight Tungsten Rings

        1
        Place the ring finger under a stream of cool water. The cool temperature to reduce swelling of the finger.

        2
        Apply liquid soap to the ring finger. Rub the soap around the ring and finger to lubricate the ring. Gently twist the ring from side to side to lubricate the underside with soap. Liquid soap will not damage tungsten.

        3
        Gently pull the ring toward the knuckle. Work the ring down the shaft of the finger until it slides off.
 
        4
        Seek medical attention in the event of an emergency. If the tungsten ring is cutting off circulation or causing pain, go to a hospital.

        5
        Prepare to remove the ring yourself. If medical assistance is not available, a tungsten ring can be shattered and removed from the finger with a pair of vice grip pliers.

        6
        Place the vice grip pliers around the ring. If the ring is bent into an oval shape, place the pliers on the long sides of the oval.

        7
        Apply a quick squeeze of pressure to the ring. Tungsten will fracture into pieces and fall away from the finger.

        8
        Look for cuts or wounds on the finger. Clean the wound with water. Apply an antibiotic ointment and bandage the wound. Seek medical attention as soon as possible if stitches are needed or if the blood is not clotting at the wound site.

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Carbide is a word that refers to a variety of carbon compounds. While there are several different types of carbide, tungsten carbide is the type most commonly used for cutting or drilling tools; it is very hard, relatively inexpensive, and will retain a sharp edge for a long time. While tungsten carbide is noted for its remarkable durability, a tungsten carbide tool may need occasional sharpening if it is used regularly.

Instructions

        1
        Determine if your tool needs sharpening. One easy way to decide if your tool is becoming dull is to see if it reflects light well. Shine is an indication of wear. You can also gently scrape a fingernail on a blade and see if it shaves off a sliver; if it does not, the blade is dull. Touch is not necessarily a good way to determine if a blade is sharp, as a dull carbide tool may still feel sharp.

        2
        Find a professional sharpening service. Sharpening carbide is not recommended for non-professionals, as it requires skill and specific sharpening machinery. Imprecise sharpening can ruin a tool, and a professional can restore a blade to like-new condition.

        3
        If you are interested in learning how to sharpen blades yourself, it is recommended that you locate a teacher.

        4
        Carbide tools require diamond for sharpening, due to their hardness. Wet grinding using an abrasive wheel on an automatic grinder is a very precise method of sharpening. It is also possible to sharpen a tool by using a diamond lap, but this is very imprecise and time-consuming.

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Sharpening a tungsten ensures that the arc of your tig weld remains small and symmetrical. If you attempt to weld with a blunt-tipped tungsten, the resulting weld will look sloppy and drift outside the ideal welding site-line, and the tungsten will begin to arc itself to the weld and stick. Sharpening a tungsten is simple, and completing this process will ensure that each pass you make with your welder is fluid. Does this Spark an idea?

Instructions

        1
        A wheel grinder is the fastest way to sharpen your tungsten. 

        Put on your safety glasses and welding gloves. Remove the tungsten from the welder's torch and turn on the wheel grinder.

        2
        Hold the tungsten against the grinding wheel lightly. The wheel will grind the tungsten quickly, so there is no need to apply a lot of pressure. The angle of the tungsten should be 15 degrees parallel to the grinding wheel. You want your tungsten to have the same look as a freshly sharpened pencil.

        3
        Rotate the tungsten in your fingers as you hold it against the wheel at a 15-degree angle. Twist the tungsten all the way around several times until the end is a sharp point, the neck of the tungsten's point tapering in about 1.5 inches from the point.

        4
        Check your work. When you are satisfied, wipe the end of the tungsten clean with a rag to remove all debris. You are ready to begin tig welding again.

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The PalmOne Tungsten E2 handheld device is the successor of the Tungsten E Palm Pilot and has many upgraded features, such as an updated operating system and a bright color screen. It has a 3.7-inch TFT color screen and customizable keys for use with the calendar, contacts, tasks and notepad features. Like its predecessor, the PalmOne Tungsten E2's main organization use is accomplished through its many applications. The overall control navigation and use of the Tungsten PalmOne is relatively simple.

Instructions

        1
        Press the "Power" button to turn the Tungsten E2 on. The "Power " button is found on the top of the device.

        2
        Slide the stylus out of the side slot. You will hold the stylus like a pen and tap different areas on the Tungsten E2 screen to continue.
 
        3
        Tap on a desired application icon on the Tungsten E2 display screen. The applications to choose from may range from the "Memo" to the "Calendar." Once you tap the application icon, another display screen will open with the specific information and buttons for that application.

        4
        Use the Command buttons, such as "Previous/Next" arrows, "Scroll bar," "OK" and "Cancel," to navigate through the application features. You will use the stylus to tap to desired command button(s).

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Accurately measuring your finger for its tungsten ring size is pretty simple. There is a standard North American conversion scale, and the same scale is used for both men and women. Note that it's best to measure your finger later in the day; fingers do swell a bit and you might have trouble removing a ring if you don't take this into account when sizing it.

Instructions

        1
        Cut a thin strip of paper.

        2
        Wrap the paper around your finger. Make sure the paper is below the joint of your finger and close to your knuckle.    
       
        3
        Mark the spot where the paper meets and measure the distance with your ruler.

        4
        Use the following chart to determine your  tungsten ring size. Rings also come in half sizes, the measurements of which, of course, will fall somewhere in between the whole sizes.

        5
        If you're still in doubt, download a printable ring size chart. Many online jewelers offer these, and their charts might be slightly more accurate for their particular  tungsten rings.

       Alternatively, go to the jewelry counter at your local discount retailer, such as K-Mart, Target or Walmart. You'll get a fitting without the pressure to buy that comes with going to a jewelry store.

Tips & Warnings

    Printable ring size charts can help you surprise a loved one — you simply match an existing ring to the circle representing the correct  tungsten ring size.

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A sturdy, durable metal, tungsten is used to make rings designed to last a lifetime. However, this durability can prove a downfall: Unlike other metals used in rings, which remain malleable over time and can be adjusted to fit changing finger sizes, tungsten is impossible to remold once it has been formed and forged into a shape. Jewelers design tungsten rings for comfort fit--meaning, an extra curve in the design makes them run a half size larger than most rings. Accurately determining your ring size and adjusting for tungsten's characteristics can provide you with a comfortable and durable ring. Does this Spark an idea?

Instructions

        1
        Measure your ring size when your hands are warm and you have been active for at least a few hours. Activity and temperature can change the size of your fingers, and fingers are at their largest when they are warm, especially toward the end of the day.

        2
        Try on multiple rings or ring sizers at a jewelry store, or print a ring sizing chart from an online retailer. Find the ring size that fits comfortably and snugly at the very base of your finger. This is your normal ring size.

        3
        Subtract a half size from your normal ring size to determine your tungsten comfort fit size. For example, if your normal ring size is an 8, your tungsten size is 7.5.

Tips & Warnings

    If you already know your regular ring size, simply subtract a half size to determine your tungsten size.

    Some jewelers will have the option for you to try on "comfort fit" ring sizers. If you use a comfort fit sizer, do not subtract the half size, as the comfort fit is the exact design of the tungsten ring.

    Tungsten rings cannot be reshaped. If you provided or received the wrong ring size, contact your manufacturer or retailer for replacement options.

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